Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It doesn’t get any better than October baseball. Both American League Wild Card Series ended in a sweep, but we have a solid chance at seeing a series in this round go the distance. The Tigers and their pitching chaos are only a small underdog to their division rivals, while the Yankees are the biggest series favorites we’ve seen so far this postseason. Whether it’s a sweep or the series goes the distance, it’s tough to complain about the magic that is the playoffs.
We ran the FTN MLB Model, and our American League Division Series projections are posted below.
You can find the National League Division Series projections here.
American League Division Series Preview
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians
It will be an AL Central matchup in one half of the ALDS, as the Detroit Tigers went into Houston and swept the Astros to advance to the ALDS for the right to face division rival Cleveland Guardians.
We know the Tigers’ story by now. A team that went into the trade deadline as sellers, shipping out Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers, sat at 52-59 Aug. 2. The Tigers finished the year 34-17 to make the postseason, and their red-hot run has continued, knocking out the Astros in two games in Houston. Their rotation is led by inevitable 2024 AL Cy Young Tarik Skubal, but there are several question marks beyond their ace. Their lineup continues to hit and will need to continue doing so if they want their season to continue.
They will be opposed by the Guardians, who won the season series between the two teams 7-6. The Guardians are well known for their high-contact lineup, making them a tough out against anyone. They sport one of the best bullpens in the league as well, including closer Emmanuel Clase, who finished the 2024 season with a 0.61 ERA, converting 47 of 50 save opportunities. Expect the Guardians to remain their scrappy selves, while relying on a pitching staff that includes Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams and Ben Lively.
- Tigers: 95 wRC+ (21st) – 3.79 SIERA (6th)
- Guardians 100 wRC+ (17th) – 3.87 SIERA (9th)
Schedule
- Game 1: Saturday, October 5, 1:08 p.m. ET
- Game 2: Monday, October 7, 4:08 p.m. ET
- Game 3: Wednesday, October 9, TBD
- Game 4 (if necessary): Thursday, October 10, TBD
- Game 5 (if necessary): Saturday, October 12, TBD
Probable Starters
- Game 1: Tyler Holton vs. Tanner Bibee
- Game 2: Tarik Skubal vs. Matthew Boyd
- Game 3: Gavin Williams vs. Reese Olson/Bullpen
- Game 4: Tanner Bibee vs. Tyler Holton
- Game 5: Matthew Boyd vs. Tarik Skubal
Series Prices
(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Winner: Tigers +102 @ Guardians -120
- Spread: Tigers +1.5 -220 — Guardians -1.5 +168
- Total Games: 4.5 (+152/-188)
Tigers vs. Guardians Game-By-Game Overview
| Game 1 | Runs | xWIN% |
| DET | 3.19 | 43.6% |
| CLE | 3.63 | 56.4% |
| Game 2 | Runs | xWIN% |
| DET | 3.31 | 55.2% |
| CLE | 2.98 | 44.8% |
| Game 3 | Runs | xWIN% |
| DET | 3.69 | 51.8% |
| CLE | 3.56 | 48.2% |
| Game 4 | Runs | xWIN% |
| DET | 3.43 | 49.7% |
| CLE | 3.45 | 50.3% |
| Game 5 | Runs | xWIN% |
| DET | 3.35 | 57.0% |
| CLE | 2.91 | 43.0% |
Tigers vs. Guardians Series Overview
| Series Outcomes | xWIN% | xLINE |
| DET in 3 | 12.47% | +702 |
| DET in 4 | 18.81% | +432 |
| DET in 5 | 21.48% | +366 |
| DET | 52.75% | -112 |
| CLE in 3 | 12.18% | +721 |
| CLE in 4 | 18.86% | +430 |
| CLE in 5 | 16.20% | +517 |
| CLE | 47.25% | +112 |
Projected starters are not yet official and usage may be adjusted. Check out the FTN MLB Model for updated projections.
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees
It’s safe to say the Royals will need more from their offense if they want to advance to the American League Championship Series. KC needed only three runs to sweep the Orioles in the Wild Card Round. Things will get tougher, as Kansas City is a much bigger underdog in this series vs. the Yankees. That didn’t matter much in the previous round as the Padres were the only favorite to advance to the Division Series.
The Royals will need their two aces, Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo, to continue dealing if they want to knock out Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and the rest of the Bronx Bombers. The Yankees took five of the seven games against the Royals in the regular season. New York’s biggest advantage in this series is its offense — it’s tough to see the Royals offense doing enough to keep up in this one.
- Royals: 96 wRC+ (20th) – 3.99 SIERA (17th)
- Yankees: 117 wRC+ (2nd) – 3.93 SIERA (11th)
Schedule
- Game 1: Saturday, October 5, 6:38 p.m. ET:
- Game 2: Monday, October 7, 7:38 p.m. ET
- Game 3: Wednesday, October 9, TBD
- Game 4 (if necessary): Thursday, October 10, TBD
- Game 5 (if necessary): Saturday, October 12, TBD
Probable Starters
- Game 1: Michael Wacha vs. Gerrit Cole
- Game 2: Cole Ragans vs. Carlos Rodón
- Game 3: Luis Gil vs. Seth Lugo
- Game 4: Gerrit Cole vs. Michael Wacha
- Game 5: Cole Ragans vs. Carlos Rodón
Series Prices
(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Winner: Royals +172 @ Yankees -205
- Spread: Royals +1.5 -138 — Yankees -1.5 +108
- Total Games: 4.5 (+172/-215)
Royals vs. Yankees Game-By-Game Overview
| Game 1 | Runs | xWIN% |
| KC | 3.26 | 34.0% |
| NYY | 4.54 | 66.0% |
| Game 2 | Runs | xWIN% |
| KC | 3.28 | 35.0% |
| NYY | 4.47 | 65.0% |
| Game 3 | Runs | xWIN% |
| KC | 3.99 | 45.6% |
| NYY | 4.36 | 54.4% |
| Game 4 | Runs | xWIN% |
| KC | 3.88 | 44.2% |
| NYY | 4.36 | 55.8% |
| Game 5 | Runs | xWIN% |
| KC | 3.31 | 36.1% |
| NYY | 4.40 | 63.9% |
Royals vs. Yankees Series Overview
| Series Outcomes | xWIN% | xLINE |
| KC in 3 | 5.43% | +1743 |
| KC in 4 | 11.97% | +735 |
| KC in 5 | 12.51% | +699 |
| KC | 29.91% | +234 |
| NYY in 3 | 23.34% | +328 |
| NYY in 4 | 24.64% | +306 |
| NYY in 5 | 22.11% | +352 |
| NYY | 70.09% | -234 |
Projected starters are not yet official and usage may be adjusted. Check out the FTN MLB Model for updated projections.
