Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Wednesday gives us a loaded 15-game MLB slate, starting at 1:10 p.m. ET in Cleveland and finishing up with the Colorado and San Francisco west coast nightcap. With so many games on the board, value is bound to be hidden somewhere so let’s see what hump day’s best bets are.
Washington Nationals @ Toronto Blue Jays
Washington and Toronto will wrap up their quick two-game series in Dunedin at 7:07 pm E.T. After Max Scherzer got touched up Tuesday, Washington will send Erick Fedde to the mound to face off against Toronto southpaw Steven Matz.
Washington’s offense hasn’t been too intimidating to start the year, putting up a .293 wOBA and 82 wRC+ through 19 games. This is not, however, because they are a bad all-around lineup. Facing right-handers, they have the league’s worst wOBA (.270), wRC+ (68), SLG (.325), OPS (.612) and ISO (.103). Their splits vastly improve, however, facing left-handers, where they own the league’s second-ranked wOBA (.358), No. 4 wRC+ (124), No. 2 OBP (.368), No. 8 SLG (.452), No. 2 OPS (.816) and the No. 9 hard-hit rate (32.2%). Needless to say, this offense is a completely different beast vs. righties and lefties and luckily for them Matz is a left-hander.
On the flip side of Washington, we have Fedde, who, despite his 5.51 ERA, has pitched pretty well to the tune of a 3.34 FIP through four starts. He has added almost 5 strikeouts to last season’s K/9 figure to get it up to 9.9, allows a below-average hard hit rate, and has been pretty unlucky with a .348 BABIP. Albeit in small sample sizes, he has found a good deal of success on the road and against right-handed hitters so far as well. Away from Nationals Park, he’s held hitters to a miniscule .248 wOBA while posting a 2.99 FIP and has been arguably better against righties allowing only a .251 wOBA while putting up a 1.14 FIP. This could end up being detrimental to Toronto, whose lineup is loaded with righties (Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Marcus Semien, Randal Grichuk, Danny Jansen and George Springer if he plays).
Toronto’s lineup was projected to be one of the best in the majors coming into the season, but so far, it hasn’t lived up to their expectations. Against right-handers, the Blue Jays have just the 20th-ranked wOBA at .292 and the No. 19 wRC+ (87), putting them in the same ballpark as the Detroits and Baltimores of the league. They have been fairly unlucky, with just a .263 BABIP, but they also have a bottom-10 hard hit rate, SLG (.361) and ISO (.140), suggesting that they aren’t exactly threatening either. To add insult to injury, their BB% is among the 10 lowest in the league, their BB/K in the bottom half of the league, and they have a bottom-10 OBP.
Matz has been amazing for Toronto this year, posting a 2.31 ERA to go along with a 3.22 FIP through four starts, a far cry from his 9.68 ERA and 7.76 FIP in 2020. While his HR/FB ratio is exactly league average, he’s gotten extremely lucky with just a .214 BABIP that is sure to regress back toward to .300. Pitching in Dunedin also hasn’t been too friendly to Matz, who has had worse home splits than road this year, allowing a .350 wOBA and a 5.43 FIP at his home park. He’s projected to perform closer to a 4.51 ERA and a 4.48 FIP this year, so taking that in combination with his BABIP luck and bad home splits, could make this a vulnerable spot for him.
The pick
Coming fresh off a Scherzer beating, I’m looking to back Washington in this matchup. The Nationals mash lefties, Matz should have some negative BABIP regression coming, and has been worse in Dunedin than anywhere else this season. Washington +145.
Oakland Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays
Oakland and Tampa Bay will kick off the third game of their four-game series after splitting the first two. Lefty Cole Irvin will take the mound for Oakland, while Tampa Bay will counter with Tyler Glasnow.
Oakland suffered coming out of the gate, losing the first six games, but the A’s have drastically turned it around, going 15-3 since then. They’ve been able to scratch out a .301 wOBA, good for 15th in the league, and a 101 wRC+ against right-handed, ninth in the league despite having the second-lowest BABIP at .249. On the road, their numbers are somewhat similar, posting a .310 wOBA (13th) and 102 wRC+ (11th) while still having a .276 BABIP that leaves the door open for some slight positive regression. Their BB% and BB/K both rank within the top 10 in baseball and proves they have the ability to get on base even if they are dealt some bad luck.
Through four starts so far this year, Irvin has certainly exceeded expectations by putting up a 3.86 ERA and a slightly lower 3.57 FIP while having a higher– expected .324 BABIP. He’s been able to harness his control a little more this year, shaving off more than a full walk from last season’s BB/9 while keeping his K% largely the same. The long ball was an absolute detriment to Irvin last year, allowing 2.45 HR/9, but this year he’s cut that down to under 1 at 0.86 HR/9 with essentially a league-average HR/FB ratio. Irvin has been pitching very well to start the season and if his BABIP normalizes he could get even better.
Tampa Bay’s offense can be looked at as their vulnerable spot, as they have just the 19th-ranked wOBA (.305) and 15th wRC+ (103) against lefties while putting up even worse home numbers at a .283 wOBA (25th) and 92 wRC+ (18th). Their home BB% is borderline bottom-10, fourth-highest K%, and a bottom-5 OPS all while having a .275 BABIP that isn’t egregiously low. Tampa Bay may be a solid team, but it’s mainly because their pitchers carry them.
No matter which way you spin it, Glasnow is filthy. He has a 2.05 ERA and a 1.82 FIP through four starts and 30.2 innings to being the season. He’s cut off almost a full walk from last year’s BB/9 and has reduced his hard hit% to just a hair under 20%. While he has been lights out this year, over the course of his career he is slightly worse at home putting up a 3.94 FIP while allowing a .329 wOBA. He has been pretty lucky with a HR/FB ratio about 3% lower than the league average and a BABIP hovering around .200, but make no mistake about it, Glasnow is one of the best starters in the league.
The pick
Call me crazy, but I’m backing Oakland against Glasnow here. The A’s have been arguably the hottest team in the league since the second series of the season and should have some positive regression coming their way soon with their bottom-of-the-barrel .249 BABIP against RHP. I have Oakland projected closer to a +120-road dog, so I’ll be buying the value at +145. Oakland +145.
