Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Groove is in the heart! Welcome to Groovin’ With Govier! It is my hope that you will find this article an enjoyable read. I also have a promo code for you if you want to sign up for any of our useful subscriptions we have here at FTN Fantasy, Daily or Bets. Just type in promo code “MJGOVIER” and you will save some dough on our unbeatable subscription package!
It is my ultimate goal for you to absorb and apply winning fantasy baseball wisdom from each edition of Groovin’ With Govier. It’s similar to when Neo was offered the blue or the red pill. If you continue reading this, you will see how far down the rabbit hole my fantasy baseball analysis can go.
That means each Monday, you actively select myself to summon the Bifrost of fantasy baseball so that we can arrive at your final destination … a league championship. If Ichiro Girl’s dreams came true, so can yours.
Baseball Is Life
Strike First, Strike Hard, No Mercy
Few things can top the pure innocence and joy that come packaged with a newly arriving member of The Show. Remember the juice associated with Stephen Strasburg’s debut in 2010? Yes, Strasburg hasn’t quite lived up to the heavy dose of expectations we put on him as a youngster. Still, for those of you who were lucky enough to have been in D.C. on that picturesque day June 8, 2010, or the people who watched it live on TV, take yourself back to that evening. Remember the palpable buzz in the air that night? Do you think Corbin Carroll will have a similar experience Monday night against the Phillies and lefty Ranger Suárez? When facing lefties, Ranger has only given up one HR and six toal XBH against 102 hitters faced in 2022.
In 91 games combined at AA and AAA this season, Carroll has noticeable departures versus lefties in comparison to his stats facing RHP. His power (HR: 20 against RHP, 4 against LHP. SLG: .659 versus RHP, .461 facing LHP) has a wide gap in the pitching splits, plus his plate discipline isn’t as stellar with a 68-point drop in OBP from RHP to LHP. The other major concern was his shoulder surgery in 2021 which caused him to miss most of the year. This is mostly just nitpicking though, because he showed how healthy he was through his production in the minors this year. He’s certainly a top-five overall prospect on most of the prospects lists that matter. Some of you may be reading this and saying to yourself, “Carroll is long gone in most leagues, Govier. Get a clue.” Well, in NFBC FAAB leagues, he will be added to the free-agent pool this week (unless someone drafted him in your league). Bottom line is, you should strike first, hard and with no mercy in attempting to acquire Carroll!
For those who play H2H cats or points, the playoff portion of the 2022 fantasy baseball season has arrived. If your H2H league is anything like my H2H cats 14 team 5×5 home league known as Bless You Boys (BYB), it likely features a crew of gambling enthusiasts who spend way too much time in the league text thread talking trash while overanalyzing the minutiae of every league event since its inception, because the monotony associated with their jobs makes the ongoings in the league seem more entertaining than they are. BYB playoffs start today with the quarterfinals and will finish with a single-week championship matchup that ends after the day’s action on Sunday, September 18.
Yes, that means we ignore the final two weeks of the regular season. Too often, our league members felt that their best players were not useful because they were being rested to save their bodies for the next season or to let September call-ups get some reps. Six teams make the playoffs, with the two division winners receiving first-round byes. I was coasting on a double-digit lead in my division with four weeks to go. Then, an epic collapse began that resulted in me sitting 1.5 games out of first. The final regular-season matchup just happened to have the team I was chasing as my opponent. All I had to do was win 6-4 and I could avoid joining the ‘64 Phillies, the 2011 Sawks and my 2009 bozo Tigers as teams that collapsed. By Sunday morning, I was up 7-3. That score was deceiving though, as he had three SP going compared to my Nick Lodolo. Don’t get greedy no matter what Gordon Gecko said! I was going to lose Ks, but my ERA and WHIP were elite, so I decided to bench Lodolo while only using my three closers Edwin Díaz, Garrett Whitlock and Daniel Bard, as I was up 2-1 in the saves cat.
Turns out the Rockies not trading Bard at the trade deadline was pure genius, because he came on to close out the Mets in a 1-0 game at Citi Field. Bard did his duty. He sealed the saves cat for me. My only panic left was Ronald Acuña Jr. sitting for the second straight day while my opponent (a serious Cardinals fan) had five players going in the Sunday night game. I led runs scored by nine going into that game. Despite Tommy Edman and company scoring six runs, it wasn’t enough. I had sweated out an intense victory that staved off the reality of an epic collapse. Now I get to rest for a week as I await my opponent. After 19 weeks of grueling competition, I welcome the chance to recharge my batteries. My hope is that any of you who are anti-H2H will reconsider your stance. It was challenging, but the excitement level in H2H is vastly superior to roto.
On the latest edition of my fantasy baseball show, the Pallazzo Podcast, I consulted the knowledgeable people in the live chat on who to pick up as my first baseman in one of my leagues. Ever since Joey Votto found out why he wasn’t himself on the field, I have been scuffling to secure a reliable 1B. What’s worse is I had just traded for Nathaniel Lowe prior to that league’s trade deadline, but in a momentary roster crunch 10 days later, I chose to drop Lowe and ride or die with Votto ROS.
I don’t regret the decision because it’s an OBP league, but I feel a bit like Larry David in Curb Your Enthusiasm when he dates Irma Kostroski to get what he wants. So it all comes down to the latest flavors of the week to choose from. Which first base eligible player would you rather add: Franchy Cordero or Harold Ramírez? A lot of people have been waiting for the moment Franchy would make his mark on the game again. Right now, he is certainly catching our attention. Since his recall from Triple-A Worcester, Cordero has four dongs in his last six games. He’s already set his career high in PA this year with 257. He works out of a platoon situation with Bobby Dalbec as well.
Ramirez of the Rays has been scorching the ball since he returned from his fractured right thumb earlier this month. For the season, he sports a 137 wRC+ (100 is average). Those are borderline all-star level numbers. Power isn’t his forte, but making consistent contact in the zone has helped raise his z-contact from 69% last year to 75% in 2022. Ramirez also plays everyday lately on a team that loves to platoon, play the matchups and drive most fantasy managers batty to the point where they swear that Pepe Silvia is the key to everything. This week, the Rays have two off days, while the Red Sawks have a full seven-game slate that is chock full of RHP matchups too. I say go with Franchy this week if you’re in a daily moves league that doesn’t penalize strikeouts for hitters.
One week ago, the greatest pitcher in the most challenging level of baseball competition in the world was humbled by an awesome force known as the Los Angeles Dodgers offense. Yep, 26 year-old Sandy Alcantara was pulled after 3.2 IP at Chavez Ravine marking his shortest start of 2022. The hot takes heated up as word spread that the Dodgers have Sandy’s number. It became standard fodder across the Twitterverse. In four starts against the Dodgers prior to Saturday, Sandy had given up 23 ER over 14 IP. And when Mookie Betts homered in the top of the third to give the Dodgers a 1-0 lead over Sandy and the Fish, it looked like the onslaught was ready to take hold, as the next batter Trea Turner ripped a single.
Freddie Freeman strolled up next to topple Alcantara. Freeman mashed a sharp liner to speedy Jon Berti at 2B who then doubled off Turner at first. From then on, Sandy showed the boys in blue how to turn the page. From then on until the top of the 9th, Alcantara only surrendered a single. In that final frame, Sandy knew that to truly flip the script on his woes against Los Angeles, he had to win this game in the singular way that separates Alcantara from all other starting pitchers in modern baseball: the complete game. It was also a 2-1 game coming into the 9th. One swing of the bat from the monsters in blue could tie it up or take away Sandy’s lead. In a rare sight today that had similar energy to a playoff game, Alcantara struck out Trea Turner, then proceeded to give up back-to-back singles putting the go-ahead run on.
After two mound visits in the inning, Sandy got Joey Gallo to ground out where he covered first to secure the winning putout. I’ve rarely been that jacked up for a regular-season game. Alcantara has been worth every bit of his preseason ADP. He’s a fantasy ace who has pitched 185 innings and has more complete games than every team in MLB! The question in 2023 will be whether his 8.1 K/9 will keep him out of the first round.
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Cade Cavalli – Nationals prospect Cade Cavalli had a debut to forget last Friday. He gave up 7 ER to the Reds in Washington. He did induce 13 whiffs mostly with the use of his FF and his CU. In 97 IP at Triple-A, he only gave up three homers this season. That’s something he has done very well in all his stops in the minors. Command is where the main concern lies. If hitters lay off his CU, which they will do more often in the bigs, the walks will be plentiful. I have reservations with Cavalli in redraft just as I would with most rookie starting pitchers. If you’re in need of Ks or innings, Cavalli makes sense as a deep-league play in 14-teamers or deeper.
Romy Gonzàlez – Yoán Moncada clearly has a disconnect with the game of baseball. He’s on the IL with a hammy issue again. The guy I would love to replace Moncada with, Jake Burger, is currently on the IL with a wrist fracture. Enter Romy Gonzàlez. All I can think of when I see his name is this silly movie from the 90s called “Romy And Michelle’s High School Reunion.” Lisa Kudrow’s funny. Anyways, Romy is a 25-year-old lifer in the White Sox system. Gonzalez was given a cup of coffee of 33 PA in 10 games in The Show last year. He did make it there after starting 2021 at Double-A where he hit 20 dongs in 344 PA. Romy also swiped 21 bags. For 2022, Gonzalez only had 133 PA, but his triple slash .198/.281/.339 was bogus. He hit leadoff in all three games against Arizona over the weekend. If that trend continues, Romy needs to be taken for a spin in 14-teamers and deeper. I’d rather have 3B eligible players Isaac Paredes, Ramón Urías, Luis Urías or Ildemaro Vargas.
Trevor Rogers – The Fish are expecting Rogers back this week. There’s no need to rehash his poor outcomes in 2022. He had an ADP of 90 in the month of March leading up to Opening Day. Some pitchers right behind him you would have rather drafted: Shane McClanahan, Carlos Rodón, Yu Darvish and Luis Castillo. His walks and home runs ballooned this year. Was he trying to pitch through back pain during the year? Was it a phantom injury to give him some time off so he could reset? Who knows! All I do know is Rogers was not a fluke last year. I’m absolutely buying into a strong finish for Rogers down the stretch. I added Rogers in 12-teamers too. So should you if you need to gain points in Ks or ratio cats.
Nick Martinez – There are some players on the Brewers who need to apologize to their front office for complaining about trading Josh Hader in public. Hader is a ghost of himself right now. There are saves to be had in San Diego as they compete to secure a wild card playoff bid. Nick Martinez isn’t dominant, but he’s capable. He locked down the save in KC Saturday night. Since August 1, Martinez has not given up an ER in 13.2 IP, which has been helped by his 100% strand rate over the same time frame. Martinez also has SP eligibility on certain platforms too, which is always an advantage for closers.
Garrett Mitchell – The 2020 first rounder is in the majors with the Brew Crew as they look to fill their void in CF. He played 44 games at Double-A this year before being promoted to Triple-A where, in a smaller sample size of 85 PA, Mitchell pilfered nine bags while reducing his K rate by 6% from Double-A. After 20 games, he got the call, and in his first start for Milwaukee he went 1-4 with a run scored and 2 RBI. He’s a lefty hitter, so be weary of trends and platoon scenarios going forward. Right now he’s a solid source of steals. Anything else is a bonus in my view.
