Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to the Groovin’ with Govier! If you’re new here (regulars: skip), I dissect various players and strategies related to the current fantasy baseball landscape. Don’t forget about our stellar season-long fantasy baseball coverage at FTN Fantasy. Save a couple bones with my promo code MJGOVIER when you sign up so you can get access to Vlad Sedler’s must-have weekly Trust the Gut FAAB review. It’s the best in the business, bar-none. Now, just like newly called up Guardians pitcher Peyton Battenfield, it’s time for me to make the most of this opportunity.
Strange Day Here at Windswept Fields
There are few terrors more stunning than waking up in the morning to scour the MLB box scores only to see the number 9 in the earned runs column. Even more shocking is to see that number next to reigning NL Cy Young champion Sandy Alcantara — especially after he had just tamed a hot Twins offense with a complete game shutout. Cue the Ronald Acuña Jr. injury video from 2021. This poor outing will certainly fuel the fire of the Sandy detractors in fantasy baseball who decry his elite status as a pitcher because he doesn’t strike out hitters at a rate like Gerrit Cole or Jacob deGrom. The next thing that pops into mind is the baseball itself. It’s bonkers that this is a fair point to bring up in 2023 after tenuous labor peace and a host of rule changes have brought increased excitement and buzz to the game. The casual fan could care less. For fantasy managers waging real money to win their fantasy baseball leagues, the endless mystery surrounding which baseball is in play for any given month brings about suspicion and controversy.
It doesn’t appear that the baseball possibly being more juicy had anything to do with Sandy’s Philadelphia night terror. In 4 IP Sandy allowed one dong. That bomb was delivered by Jake Cave to right field with a solid but not elite exit velocity of 103.9 MPH at a distance of 413 feet. Plus Alcantara only allowed one walk. But in the end, it was the 10 hits that did him in. Alec Bohm had a career day at the plate. No doubt. However, it was Devin Smeltzer who had plenty to do with that. Sandy only allowed 6 hard hit balls in play. I say only because for surrendering 9 ER in an outing, there should have been more hard-hit balls in play. When Chris Bassitt coughed up 9 ER against the Cardinals April 2, he had allowed 11 hard-hit balls in play.
Of course I complained about this massive buzzkill of an outing on Twitter. Then this fella replies by saying it happens. Don’t be that guy. I stopped to ponder this possible reality. Does it really? Do reigning Cy Young winners give up 9 earned runs? Obviously I had to get it on Waingro style with the research. I went back over the last 10 years of Cy Young winners to see if any of these winners gave up 9 ER or more in an outing the season after winning the coveted pitching achievement. To preserve the integrity of this review, I removed the Cy Young winners from the 2020 60-game pandemic bozo season. Just for fun, do you know who those winners were?
Starting from the most recent, Robbie Ray twice gave up 6 ER last year after his free agent cash-in run with Toronto in 2021. NL winner Corbin Burnes only went as high as 5 ER last season. Twice in 2019 Blake Snell gave up 7 ER after his magical (heavy emphasis on magic) winning season of 2018. Snell’s NL counterpart Jacob deGrom surrendered 6 ER twice in 2019 but didn’t come close to Sandy’s dreaded number. After stunning the baseball realm with his AL win over the more deserving Justin Verlander in 2016, Rick Porcello gave up 8 earned. That’s very close to Sandy. Is it reasonable to leap to the conclusion that Sandy is Rick Porcello? After all, they’re both sinkerball pitchers. At least Sandy throws much harder than ole Ricky ever did. Porcello also gave up 7 ER twice in 2017 finishing his follow-up season with a 4.65 ERA. Realizing that Dallas Keuchel truly did take home the AL Cy Young in 2015 had me thinking I might need a pair of Oops I Crapped My Pants. Fortunately I staved off any sudden movements after discovering Keuchel tied Porcello verbatim with an 8 ER outing and two 7 ER appearances. I’m making the argument now that Keuchel and Porcello are my vote as the two most overrated Cy Young award winners in the AL or the NL. Plus they happened in back-to-back years! I was ready to close my research after finding out the 2014 winners did not match Sandy. I figured I would go back an even ten years just to give this review presentable packaging. BOOM! I found my guy and as luck would have it, he happened to be a Detroit Tiger (this was back when legit Tiger’s baseball was played before Mike Ilitch died when Chris Ilitch became the vile, disgusting face of the bozo operation we laugh at today). 2013 AL Cy Young victor Max Scherzer gave up 10 earned runs against the eventual World Series runner-up Kansas City Royals June 17, 2014, at Comerica Park. For those of you reeling from the Phillies romp Monday while still hoping for a quality season from Alcantara, Scherzer finished 2014 with a 2.85 FIP on a 3.15 ERA. Scherzer also went on to win more Cy Young titles including one in each league. Now I labor under no delusions about the similarities between Sandy and Max, but I am going to take this silver lining for Sandy’s 2023 and end this on top.
How Am I Not Myself?
Fantasy baseball is loaded with wizards of data. I know a thing or two about a thing or two when it comes to understanding fantasy baseball, but I am content knowing I am not the data wizard of Westwood. Or of any town for that matter. One person who is absolutely a wizard of data and homemade advanced stats is my former co-worker who I now just call friend: Crosby Spencer. I happily gave him a channel in the Pallazzo Podcast Discord last year because of the value his research can have for fantasy baseball managers. I first got to know Crosby when we hired him at Rotofanatic in 2020 to post his ballpark factors. They were quite useful for me that season, so I wanted to know what else he was cooking up in the fantasy data kitchen. I crucially discovered that he harvested his own xStats using Statcast data For some reason though it takes him about two hours to process and upload them. Crosby obviously plays fantasy baseball. He dominates his H2H home league filled with former college ballplayers. Crosby also participates in Texas Area Roto Fantasy, one league comprising a part of the massive overall EARTH fantasy baseball tournament filled with fantasy baseball analysts in a league representing each region of the United States. I play in Great Lakes Area Roto Fantasy, the highest-scoring league combined of all 10 leagues in 2022.
Crosby won’t qualify as elite when it comes to promoting himself or his work. That’s why I wanted to prop up his early season findings to provide insight about what he’s seen so far during the barely conscious 2023 MLB season. According to Crosby, since the advent of Statcast in 2015, the overall hitter’s barrel rate on batted ball events (BBE) has increased in each season including this one (nearly doubling from 4.98% in 2015 to 8.29% in 2022). Crosby’s analysis also shows the baseball currently in play is juicier than at least one of the three balls used during 2022. Everybody knows last year’s initial baseball was by far the most pitcher friendly baseball in the Statcast era. However, Crosby states that after roughly 10 games into 2023, this year’s baseball still ranks as the third most pitcher-friendly baseball for BBE when you look at home runs per barrel hit. After ten games the rate of home runs per barrel is at 47.6% across all of MLB. Last year’s ball came in at a drastically reduced 41.5%. The most fascinating part of Crosby’s analysis is that despite this season being only ten games old, he states that no other season has deviated greatly from the outcome of the first ten games. What that means is when it comes to homers per barrel on BBE, the rate of this small sample appears to remain essentially constant throughout the season!
This is the work of one talented human being, but he’s one I trust when it comes to baseball acumen. Unfortunately, uncertainty about the baseball in play at the big-league level in recent years has created a needed curiosity in the fantasy community. The scrutiny is definitely warranted. There is more available to absorb if you are curious about Crosby’s findings. Check out Crosby’s postings and interact with him in his Pallazzo Podcast Discord channel.
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Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays
Zach Eflin’s back tightness is Taj Bradley’s gain. The Rays’ former fifth-round pick will debut Wednesday against the Sawks at arguably the worst home park in MLB. Bradley dominated AA ball in 74 IP before moving up to AAA Durham to close 2022. The International League is filled with homer-happy ballparks feeding off the loaded baseball in use there. Bradley held his own in 59 IP though he noticeably missed less bats compared to AA with a drop in his K9 from 10.65 to 8.08. Bradley has a sweet bender and can miss bats with his fastball. I wouldn’t be interested in QS leagues because he’s a Tampa Bay Ray and he still needs to show he can be strong third time through the order. Definitely worth a shot in 14-teamers and deeper.
Janson Junk, Milwaukee Brewers
I am already rooting for Janson Junk because of his sweet name. It’s a classic baseball name, isn’t it? Junk is in the mix now because the Brewers are supposedly being extra cautious by placing Brandon Woodruff on the IL with shoulder inflammation. I was hoping Bryse Wilson would get an opportunity since he’s been fantastic to start the year, but the Brew Crew wants to bring Junk aboard. Junk struck out 11 batters over 8 innings for the Angels last year. He’s not an overly dominant pitcher, but in the hands of pitching coach Chris Hook he could be a serviceable streamer or deep league addition since the Brewers are playing well. Fun fact: Junk was teammates with Tarik Skubal at Seattle University of all places in 2017.
Ryan Noda, Oakland Athletics
More injuries leading to opportunities here. Ryan Noda is a very powerful Rule 5 draft pick from the Dodgers who I have mentioned before because he has hit 54 dongs over the last two season in the minors. Now with Seth Brown out for at least a month with an oblique strain, the doors of fate of flung wide open for Noda. Some worry that Kevin Smith will prevent Noda from quality playing time. Nope! He hit in the 2-hole Tuesday night for Oakland. Noda is an OBP-league gem in waiting who will strike out plenty. In OBP leagues of 12-teams or larger he should definitely be added. Fantasy leagues with batting AVG can add Noda to the watch list for now.
James Paxton, Boston Red Sox
Man did I have a serious thing for James Paxton once upon a time. He was lanky and electric in the Pacific northwest. That seems like many lifetimes ago though. These days The Big Maple only reminds me of injury setbacks. As of when I‘m writing this, he is targeting a return to The Show with the Red Sawks. There is little reason to expect he can even start a game, let alone be useful enough to add to your fantasy team. Monitor his next rehab start Friday for Worcester. Even as a former Paxton devotee, I cannot advise adding him to your team unless it’s the deepest of deep leagues. I need to see him make two MLB starts in a row before I can consider getting involved with him again.
Franchy Cordero, New York Yankees
At this moment, someone reading this sentence is still holding onto their Franchy Cordero backstage VIP passes for his long awaited breakout tour. Franchy roped a dong Tuesday night in Cleveland ,giving him three homers in his last four games. He’s starting against righties. There’s no argument about that. The Twinkies come into the Bronx Thursday for a four-game set with four probable righthanders for each game of the series. Right now is the time to add Franchy as a streamer in 10-team leagues. Everybody else in 12-teamers or above should add him and enjoy the ride until he inevitably starts making less contact. This is the way.
Aroldis Chapman, Kansas City Royals
I truly do believe the most impactful variable that influences the possible outcomes for actions as humans is confidence. I still have a road to hoe in that department. Coming into draft season I wanted to go heavy on Aroldis Chapman because my typical plan is to not pay up for closers when there are so many saves waiting on the waiver wire every year. Chapman’s main competitor in Kansas City is Scott Barlow who has been unremarkable until he was waxed Tuesday evening in Texas. The margins are very thin for the Royals’ closing gig. Chapman has 8 K’s to 1 BB with no homers allowed in 4 IP. Cue the “it’s still early” siren, but Aroldis is the guy I want between the two. If he’s still available in your league, snag him now.
Nelson Velázquez, Chicago Cubs
Nelson Velázquez got the call Monday for the Cubbies over Christopher Morel. That speaks loudly to me. Velázquez went 3-4 and crushed a grand salami Tuesday night against Seattle. This kid impressed me when I saw him live at the Arizona Fall League in 2021. He played hard and had a spark that was hard to ignore. He still strikes out too much to be a mainstay. If he can keep his K rate down at 25% or below, this is a worthy bat worth adding in 14-teamers and deeper. Star him on your watch list now.
Geraldo Perdomo, Arizona Diamondbacks
Coming into 2023, labeling Arizona’s infield as crowded would be putting it mildly. Evan Longoria, Diego Castillo and Emmanuel Rivera were added to a crowded depth chart where Perdomo was already battling the always present but never impressive Nick Ahmed for playing time at SS. Despite my loathing of Ahmed as the most banal infielder of all-time, he has 10 hits in 25 PA. Perdomo got his first start of the year at 2B Sunday against the Dodgers. Still, it seems clear the switch-hitting Geraldo Perdomo is locked into a platoon with the banal Ahmed until further notice. Though Perdomo did not impress in 500 PA during 2022, finishing with a 58 wRC+, he did finish with a 10% BB rate. Yes he’s platooning, but he has hit the ball harder to start 2023. Perdomo is only 23 years old with room to grow with his bat. I think eventually Perdomo wins this platoon by mid-season. He is worth considering in OBP leagues.
