Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
This is the third installment of our offseason transactions roundup. The FTN Fantasy MLB team will discuss fantasy implications from the latest MLB trades and free agent signings. Our third segment is covering transactions from March 17-20. I’ll be using the most recent week of NFBC Draft Champions ADP data.
NL East
Atlanta Braves: Kenley Jansen (P)
Nobody, including myself, predicted Kenley Jansen would sign with the Atlanta Braves. I, for one, thought he would sign with the Marlins. This signing caused some minor shock waves in the fantasy baseball community on Twitter. Before Jansen’s addition, Braves’ former closer Will Smith was slated to be their guy again. With that came some serious draft inflation due to how many uncertainties there are at the position. Smith’s current ADP (67) had him as a mainstay in the fifth round. His min pick was 41, coming in the third round. The return on profit is now out the window, as Jansen will serve as the primary closer in Atlanta. Now that we know where Jansen is pitching and the bullpen that paves the way, his ADP (63) should rise. Personally, I would draft Jansen over Ryan Pressly, but not over Edwin Díaz. Smith is now undraftable for me, making him one of the worst draft picks of the entire winter.
Miami Marlins: Jorge Soler (OF)
Jorge Soler signed with the Miami Marlins for three years and $36 million. With that comes some pros and cons. On the bright side, Soler will surely get everyday playing time while being stapled into the thick of the Marlins’ order. Other potential landing spots might have not provided as much volume or security in the heart of a lineup. The dark side is that the lineup and talent around him in Miami isn’t as strong as we would like for counting stats (R + RBI) purposes. Soler possesses power with a career .219, 12.5% barrel rate, 45.7% hard hit rate and 19.6% home run to fly ball rate. The Marlins’ home park isn’t a place to go if you want to boost your stats, as it ranks 22nd in power (85) and 23rd in park factor (97), according to Baseball Savant’s Statcast Park Factors. Soler’s ADP (201) has him just outside the top 50 when only looking at outfielders. Usually when a player signs in the offseason, their ADP jumps up. I’m not sure this is the case with outfielders going behind him that steal bases while playing on teams with better surrounding talent. With power being a fairly easy statistic to accrue, I’m likely out on Soler due to this landing spot and price tag.
Philadelphia Phillies: Nick Castellanos (OF)
This is a fantastic landing spot for Nick Castellanos, who signed a five-year deal worth $100 million. Put it this way, if Jorge Soler was the one signing with the Phillies, I would have a much different outlook for him. Unfortunately that isn’t the case. Now, back to Castellanos, who leaves the Reds at the right time as they give away talent to shed their payroll. Castellanos’ home park factor doesn’t decrease as much as it could, with Citizens Bank Park ranking inside the top 10 in park factor and home runs. I don’t want to say I know how the Phillies’ lineup will shake out, but I’m confident Castellanos will hit between the 2-4 spot. The hitters surrounding Castellanos include Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, JT Realmuto and Rhys Hoskins. The Phillies should be one of the highest-scoring offenses in baseball with Castellanos being a key contributor. Castellanos is already going inside the top 20 for the outfielder market, but I would fine with drafting him inside the top 15. Castellanos had a career high .267 ISO with a .309 batting average, and I don’t expect that to change much in 2022.
NL Central
Chicago Cubs: Jonathan Villar (3B/SS), Drew Smyly (P)
Jonathan Villar continues to find himself opportunities, as his agent does a fantastic job of seeking teams in need of talent and depth. I’m not really a “Villar guy” because he could be a batting average liability. Villar had an xBA of .208 (2020) and .235 (2021) over the last two seasons. He’s also below average for power with a career ISO of .145, hitting just 20 home runs over the previous two seasons with a combined 712 plate appearances. Wrigley Field isn’t an offensive haven, and the lineup leaves a lot to be desired. As of this writing, I couldn’t tell you where Villar is going to hit in the lineup. Either way, the Cubs’ lineup is below average, and there is a chance he hits in the lower half of the lineup. Overall, I think Villar does more damage than good when considering his projected outcome and how many categories in which he fails to contribute. Fortunately I don’t shift markets, as Villar’s current ADP of 247 is likely on the rise as live drafts are upon us. In last night’s $500 NFBC Tag Team Championship, Villar was selected at pick 209.
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers: Tyler Anderson (P), Danny Duffy (P)
It’s no secret the Dodgers need more pitching depth even with the addition of Tyler Anderson. Anderson signed a contract for one year with all eight million being guaranteed. There is also a $500K bonus for exceeding 100 innings. Anderson has always been an interesting streaming option, as his first four seasons were with Colorado, making him viable (at times) when pitching on the road. Anderson is 32 years old with a career high of 176 innings pitched. In 2021, Anderson made 31 starts but with only 167 innings pitched. In 2019, Anderson had knee surgery that caused him to miss most of the season, bouncing back in the shortened 2020 season, making 11 starts with 13 appearances, pitching 59 innings. The Dodgers and any fantasy manager who decides to draft Anderson is getting a healthy pitcher as of today. The other positive is that he will be pitching with the Dodgers, who are one of the organizations that get the most out of their pitchers. Anderson isn’t a high-velocity (90.2) pitcher, but he has a four-pitch mix with his 2021 increase in slider usage (12.4%). His walk rate (5.4%) was a career low, which somewhat mitigates his home run problems (1.41 HR/9). I expect his ADP (540) to rise with him signing with the Dodgers, although it won’t get out of control. Anderson just might be able to take it to the next level, removing him from the streaming-only category.
The Dodgers traded for Danny Duffy during the 2021 season even though he was hurt with free agency in his future. The two seem to appreciate each other, with the Dodgers and Duffy coming to a one-year agreement. Duffy is still recovering from flexor tendon surgery and isn’t expected to be ready until June or July. When he returns, the plan is for him to pitch out the bullpen. Duffy is undraftable as of today, but monitor his performance and role once he returns if you’re in NL-Only leagues.
San Francisco Giants: Matthew Boyd (P)
Is it just me or does everyone get excited when the San Francisco Giants sign a starting pitcher? I’m sure it’s all of us, and rightly so with the brains in the Giants’ front office. They know what they’re doing along with knowing how to increase the level of performance when it comes to getting the most out of their pitchers. Boyd will likely go on the 60-day IL until he is fully recovered from flexor tendon surgery, giving him a projected return to the mound in June if everything goes right. If you drafted Boyd in NFBC Draft Champions, you have to be happy about the landing spot and potential upon returning. If you’re in NL-Only leagues with IL spots, I don’t mind taking a shot on him. There is no chance I’m drafting Boyd in a standard 15-team, 30-round draft with FAAB. There will come a time when Boyd becomes the flavor of the week in FAAB, but now is not the time. Boyd’s current NFBC Draft Champions ADP is 609, which is a 41st-round pick on average. If you’re still drafting DCs or plan on doing more, I would anticipate his ADP to go up a little.
High-Level (NL)
- Upgrade: Drew Smyly (NL Only), Jonathan Villar (all formats), Kenley Jansen (all formats), Matthew Boyd (NL Only/IL), Michael Pineda (all formats), Tyler Anderson (15s)
- Downgrade: Jorge Soler (all formats), Will Smith (all formats)
AL East
Boston Red Sox: Trevor Story (SS), Hansel Robles (P)
Fasten your seatbelts, Trevor Story is about to become one of the biggest risers in high-stakes drafts that begin on Thursday. Story was previously going in the third round on average with an ADP of 36 and a min of 32. It was hard to imagine many landing spots that would have his ADP rise like it will, but let me tell you, the Boston Red Sox and Fenway Park were very high on that list. I don’t have any doubt Story is now a second-round pick in 15-team leagues. Just last night, Story was drafted 22nd overall in the NFBC Tag Team Championship. Story will get multi-eligibility (SS/2B) after a couple of weeks playing second base. Manager Alex Cora already stated the plan is to keep Xander Bogaerts at shortstop. This will be the best lineup Story has ever been a part of, surrounded by Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez, Alex Verdugo and so-on. Even though Coors Field is a hitter’s paradise, the overall landscape for parks is better for Story with the AL East posing more favorable parks than the NL West. If you were planning on drafting Story in the third round, I hate to break it to you, he won’t be available.
The Boston bullpen is like a Long Island Iced Tea. We don’t really know what’s in it, but we know it will get you drunk. Hansel Robles is the newest addition to Boston’s bullpen that includes Garrett Whitlock, Matt Barnes and Jake Diekman. Robles was acquired by Boston last season via trade and is now being brought back on a minor league deal. Robles’ performance wasn’t good in his short stint with Boston, so he will have to earn his spot in the bullpen. Robles has closing experience with 41 career saves, although it would take a lot to go his way to get the closer gig in Boston.
AL Central
Detroit Tigers: Michael Pineda (P)
This is a nice landing spot for Michael Pineda, signing a one-year, $5.5 million deal with $2.5 million in incentives. Pineda will slot right into the Tigers’ rotation, whereas he could have been competing for a spot elsewhere. Pineda will pitch most of his games at Comerica Park, which ranks 24th in home runs. Pineda has never had a clean bill of health, missing time on the IL every season outside of 2016. It’s hard to imagine Pineda staying healthy this year. Pineda has a career HR/9 of 1.23, but he has a low walk rate of just 5.3%. His current ADP of 402 should rise a bit now that we know he has a spot in a rotation, pitching in a decent home park. With Pineda’s health issues, I likely won’t draft him in 2022.
Minnesota Twins: Carlos Correa (SS)
Carlos Correa is getting $35 million a year for three years. There are opt outs in the contract, but all we need to focus on is this year. Correa is getting a downgrade when it comes to lineup context and park factor. It’s not that I don’t like Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco and crew, it’s that I don’t like the overall talent when comparing it to the Houston Astros’ lineup. I don’t expect Correa’s market to shift much with his current ADP of 107. I could see why you would draft Correa with him being slightly above average in power and average while being an everyday contributor toward counting stats (R + RBI). I don’t mind drafting Correa if the roster construction is built with a comfortable amount of speed and you’re in need of a shortstop come the eighth round of 15-team drafts.
AL West
Los Angeles Angels: Ryan Tepera (P)
This is a nice addition to the Angels’ bullpen that is featured by Raisel Iglesias. Tepera was a decent late-round spec in 50-round Draft Champions, but the dream of him falling into saves is pretty much over. Tepera posted a career high 22.9% strikeout minus walk rate (K-BB%) last season and will be the bridge to closing time for Rasiel Iglesias. Tepera would be my guess as the next man up if something were to happen to Iglesias. As of now, Tepera belongs on free agency in FAAB leagues.
Texas Rangers: Garrett Richards (P), Matt Carpenter (2B)
It’s either been health, performance or the combination of the two throughout Garrett Richards’ career. The Texas Rangers are giving Richards a shot to prove he still has something left in the tank with a $4.5 million contract with a club option for 2023. The Rangers signed Richards to be their multi-inning reliever out of the bullpen. Last season, the Rangers were quick to pull their starters, so I could see a best-case scenario where Richards falls into cheap wins by piggybacking the starter. Richards would need a lot to go his way in order to secure and succeed in that type of role. As of now, Richards is completely off my radar.
Matt Carpenter is going to need a whole lot of magic salsa to become fantasy relevant coming into his age-36 season. I don’t see the salsa being spicy enough to provide any fantasy relevance.
High-Level (AL)
- Upgrade: Michael Pineda (15s, DCs), Trevor Story (all formats)
- Downgrade: Brad Miller (AL Only), Christian Arroyo (AL Only, DCs)
