Fantasy Baseball 2024: Hot Pockets — One Way to Prepare

Remember Hot Pockets? Sure you do. No? Well, these were microwaveable turnovers generally containing one or more type of cheese, meat or vegetables. They may not have been the healthiest food, but given the right ingredient combination for your palate (well, maybe a kid’s palate), they were delicious!

Now you might be wondering “that’s great, but what does that have to do with fantasy baseball?” And how did this article get past the normally level-headed and discerning FTN editorial staff? All good questions — but since this was their reaction to the submission, I really had no trouble with it …

This article is one man’s way to prepare for a fantasy baseball draft. This is, of course, not the only way to prepare. It may not even be your preference. But for newer fantasy managers, it is helpful to consider all approaches and then choose the way that fits you best. Everyone would agree that you have to consider ADP in planning for your draft. But the agreement ends there. Some prefer to generally ignore it, having their own value list and taking the best players available. Others look at the ADP and try to beat it by a few picks or rounds with each selection, figuring that they are building value and moving ahead of the market. And there are many others in between of course…

What to Do? So Much Information!

For the next three months or so, all fantasy baseball players, and certainly all NFBC Main Event participants, will be focused on their drafts. Some drafts, like the Main Event, will occur in March, just before the season commences. Others will occur in January or February. Regardless of the timing, though, you’ll be faced with a problem — you’ll probably be in possession of too much information. The key, for even experienced fantasy baseballers, is how to synthesize all that into an informed and well-thought-out decision in less than a minute (for NFBC live drafts). 

So what should you do as preparation? 

First, you need to do your player analysis, which this article does not address. But the FTN Draft Guide will give you plenty of help deciding who you’d prefer to focus on at each position.

Second, I suggest looking at the “Hot Pockets” that crop up in the relatively recent ADP. What do I mean by “Hot Pockets?” Well, let’s look at the catcher market below (ADP is from NFBC Draft Champions Dec. 15-Jan. 9 — 12 drafts). I show below the top 23 catchers drafted (all those taken in the top 300). Now of course this will shift — but we’re doing this for illustrative purposes. You initially would group the players drafted in close proximity to each other and draw a line between the groups. This is not by a specific number, but you should feel free to make the ADP ranges wider as you go into the later ADP groupings.

Third, look for the “pockets” of value where you see a cluster of players that you’d be interested in drafting. For example, let’s think about potential second catcher targets in the range of Bo Naylor through Jonah Heim (being drafted from approximately pick 162 to 172). This is the end of the 11th and the beginning of the 12th round of a 15-team draft. IF (and only if) you like three of these four players as your C2, then this is a spot when you can be fairly sure to acquire one of them. So as you build a draft plan — you’d put down for this round — “Address C2 here, you idiot!” (You don’t have to add the last part, that’s just for me since I tend to wander around the draft and then say — why didn’t I get a good C2? You can see my reaction below when this occurs)

ADP from NFBC Draft Champions between 12/15/23 and 1/9/24

Now that you have the general idea, we’ll take a look at two other positions — first base and relief pitcher. 

First Base Clusters

Let’s take a quick look at first base — here are some pockets of potential value. If you like a number of the first basemen going off the board in the sixth through eighth rounds (ADP 89-113) — you should be able to pick up one of them. There’s another group in Rounds 9 and 10 (ADP 124-150) and a couple of lower tiers that also might suffice for your corner infield position.

The last one I’ll show will be the relief pitchers — always a difficult position because it can feel like you jumped too early or waited too late. This position goes really early though, so be prepared to jump into the fray quickly or you’ll be left out. The premium targets are between Rounds 3 and 4, there’s a middle group in Rounds 5-6, and then the last of the relatively solid closers go off the board between Rounds 7 and 8. That’s 20 closers in the space of six rounds of drafting.

Reliever Clusters

Pockets Chart

So once you’ve done this with all the positions — determined which players you like and figured out the clusters that have a number of your targets — you can now proceed and lay out a chart like the one I show below. 

I almost always do not have specific targets in the first three or four rounds — these depend on draft slots, and you should take the best player available to you regardless of position. But after that, you can see where the pockets are that you like. This hypothetical drafter below apparently only likes catchers, first basemen and relief pitchers, but for him/her, the plan could include picking up a closer in Rounds 3 or 4; a No. 1 catcher in the fifth or sixth round; a first baseman in Round 7 or 8; a No. 2 catcher in Round 9, 10 or 11, a first baseman to serve as a corner infielder in Round 14, and a second, riskier closer in Round 16-19.

Adjust This Plan

Now your plan of course will be different — (you might even want a couple of starting pitchers on your roster!), but I suggest building out a chart like this. If you have it in front of you during the draft, you’ll be able to see if a certain position is drying up earlier than expected or being somewhat ignored. You can then adjust on the fly. The key is to have three or four targets in a given range that you are happy with — then you won’t be forced to take a player early just because you’re concerned that you will miss out and then your plan is scuttled.