Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Baseball lends itself to numerical intrigue — there have long been bountiful statistics surrounding the game, and in today’s analytics heavy version of the game, there are more numbers than ever before. Knowing what numbers are meaningful and from which actionable information can be ascertained can make all the difference. The margins have never been thinner, and the impact of every discernible edge has never been more pronounced. Here are some of the numbers that jump out at me when taking a look at Wednesday’s DFS slate.
1. 36.5%
There are going to be problems for Konnor Pilkington at Coors Field with this low a ground ball rate. The overall skillset is interesting enough, but the archetype of low velocity with control issues that doesn’t generate much in the way of soft contact or ground balls is a recipe for disaster in an offensive environment like the one he’ll be in here. Further, he has struggled against both the A’s and the Tigers, so it’s not like it takes an offensive juggernaut to throw him off his game.
I don’t think many of you were going to be going to Pilkington as your SP2 for value or anything like that, but instead I am pointing out how rough it will likely get for him as a reason to either game stack the Coors game or focus on the Rockies stacks, as opposed to the Guardians ones which will likely be more popular, as they have shown more offensive prowess regardless of game environment so far this season.
2. -11.2
It was not long ago that the Orioles pitching staff was doing amazing things on the surface fraught with luck that would soon run out, led by none other than Bruce Zimmermann. Those issues have come home to roost, as the -11.2 above is indicative of the aggregate DraftKings points accumulated for Zimmermann in his last three starts combined. Now he has to face a Blue Jays offense that is essentially tailor made to take advantage of his every weakness, and well, it probably will end up in another negative DK score.
While the masses will likely flock to the Coors game for the abundance of offense a 12 total is likely to generate, taking a hard look at a Jays stack at potentially lower than usual rostership is extremely enticing.
3. 36.8%
The only concern we have had with Spencer Strider so far into his young career is that he is still new to being stretched as a starting pitcher, but now having seen him throw 92 pitches over 5.2 innings against the Pirates last time out, that concern is pretty well alleviated. Crossing the 90-pitch mark is a massive hurdle for a pitcher and if he is cruising in this one he may get to 6 innings and/or 100 pitches. The idea that a pitcher who will be pitching for this long with a 36.8% K rate is available for sub $8K on DK is astounding, and what’s even better is that with the top-tier aces available in McClanahan, Burnes and Cortes, we might not quite see as much rostership on Strider, although he does fit in nicely as an SP2 paired with one of the aces.
If we start to get the sense that there will be more double-barreled ace type constructions though due to hitting value, Strider should be locked into the majority of your lineups as an SP2. Actually I’m probably doing that regardless of rostership — this is good chalk.
4. 2.02
It is pretty rare to see a pitcher with a 2.45 FIP like Shane McClanahan has, and rare still to see the xFIP be even lower, like McClanahan’s is, at 2.02, best in all of MLB. For context, Corbin Burnes’ 2021 xFIP was 2.30, and he led MLB by a wide margin with Zack Wheeler coming in second at 2.84. McClanahan is, so far anyway, having a better 2022 season than Burnes 2021 by a healthy margin, which is a ridiculous statement but a true one.
The 35.5% K rate and 4.7% BB rate are also astounding but I can’t just write up those stats individually every time we have him on the slate for a Diamond Data article. McClanahan is outstanding and should be in the discussion for the AL Cy Young if he keeps up this level of greatness for the whole season. The only negative here is the matchup — the Yankees have a .201 ISO against LHP so they are a force to be reckoned with, but so is McClanahan, so it’s strength on strength here. Should be a fun one.
5. 6
This is the amount of walks Corbin Burnes has issued thus far in June, which is concerning because he allowed that same number of walks in April, and fewer in May, and he has only made two starts in June. Further, the lack of command and control led to not just walks but an extremely bloated pitch count, as Burnes needed 113 pitches to get through only 4.1 innings. Now — it wasn’t all bad, he also put up 8 K’s in this time which was a contributing factor to the pitch count as well, but this is not the sort of efficiency from Burnes we’ve grown accustomed to.
So does this continue? Or does he go back to the guy that strikes out everyone and walks no one with supreme efficiency. Time will tell, but I’m likely taking a wait and see approach with him — it’s not as though is matchup is particularly attractive (although more so than McClanahan’s) and I’d like to be certain there isn’t some mechanical or physical issue causing this sudden bout with wildness.
6. .194
Somehow, some way, despite uninspiring velocity and concerningly low ground ball rate, Reid Detmers has managed to hold hitters to just a .194 BABIP this season, and while there are likely some smoke and mirrors here, there is also some talent. It’s just that when he runs into talented and well-crafted opposing lineups, his talent may not prevail, and that is the case with the Dodgers more than most teams. Although the Dodgers bats have been struggling a bit of late, not having put up more than 2 runs since June 9, they were scoring at will before that, and it may be the case that a soft tossing lefty is exactly what gets them back on track. It is always tough to afford the stars in Dodgers stacks — Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Trea Turner are always amongst the most expensive at their respective positions, but Justin Turner, Hanser Alberto and Chris Taylor are lower in the lineup options that can still provide some exposure without having to pay a massive premium.
7. 28.2%
Would it even be my article if I didn’t talk about Roansy Contreras on a Roansy Contreras start day? He’s pushing a 30% K rate, and he is priced below $7K on DK. You shouldn’t just stop the analysis there of course — the Cardinals strike out second least in all of MLB and are quite good at hitting. However, they also struggled against a similarly styled SP in Hunter Greene last weekend (high velocity, decent secondary offerings) and Contreras actually has a more diverse pitch mix to keep them on their toes. If you want to really load up on Coors bats, a Strider/Contreras pairing and eschewing the top tier of pitching could be your ticket to doing so.
