NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than in any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Tuesday’s 11-game slate DFS slate.
1. Jacob deGrom has a 63:4 K:BB ratio over 43.1 innings
The Mets’ ace has basically been perfect (1.66 ERA) in his seven starts since returning to the rotation. He’s allowed one or zero runs in five of his seven outings and has racked up at least eight strikeouts in six straight starts. Jacob deGrom has thrown at least 87 pitches in four straight outings and has topped 90 pitches in back-to-back starts. The Cubs have the sixth-highest K rate over the last 30 days (23.8%) and they rank inside the top 10 in K% vs. RHP (23.3%). The Mets are easily the biggest favorites on the board at -420 and no pitcher has touched deGrom in fantasy points per game (30.4) this season. Small sample size or not, set it and forget it, and then watch the points pile up.
2. Gerrit Cole has 19 strikeouts in his last 13 innings vs. Boston
You could argue Gerrit Cole has the highest strikeout upside on the board, but his matchup isn’t as nice as deGrom’s and he’s struggled to keep the ball in the park. Cole coughed up 24 home runs over 181.1 innings last season and he’s allowed 24 over 171.1 innings this season. He’s served up a bomb in three straight outings and four in his three starts against the Red Sox (at least one in each start). Having said that, Cole has tossed over 100 pitches in 10 of his last 11 starts and he exploded for 37.4 DK points in his last outing against Boston. Cole fanned 12 batters over seven innings and he only allowed two runs on four hits. You’re saving a bit of cash with Cole and his ownership won’t be as high.
3. The Brewers are striking out 26% of the time against lefties
Only Miami and Pittsburgh have a higher strikeout rate against southpaws than Milwaukee. Only the Giants, Marlins and Angels have a higher K rate than the Brewers over the last 30 days. Over that span, Milwaukee ranks 28th in average. Overall against lefties, the Brewers rank 26th in OPS (.568), 25th in wOBA (.294) and 23rd in ISO (.139). Jordan Montgomery only has a 7.69 K/9 on the season but he’s been lights out with the Cards. The former Yankees’ pitcher has allowed one or zero runs in six of his eight outings. Four of those outings were scoreless showings, including one against Milwaukee where he only allowed four hits over six and he tied a season-high with eight punchouts. Montgomery checks in as a pretty decent value on DK at $8.4K.
4. Nick Pivetta has allowed 17 runs in three starts against the Yankees
The Yankees enter Tuesday’s slate with the second-lowest OPS over the last 30 days, despite putting up a 10 spot in back-to-back games. It’s possible another 10 runs could be in the works as Nick Pivetta has surrendered 21 hits, 17 runs, six homers and eight walks in just 13.1 innings against New York. Yikes. Pivetta has issued at least three free passes in three of his past five starts and 11 of the 19 homers he’s allowed have come at Fenway Park. Overall, Pivetta has a 4.76 ERA in Boston and opponents are slashing .272/.343/.449 with a .346 wOBA against him. His numbers are much better on the road: .220/.292/.360 with a .289 wOBA and 3.84 ERA. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton clearly have big fly potential tonight but consider Gleyber Torres and Josh Donaldson. Torres’ 17 doubles against RHP ranks third on the Yankees and Donaldson’s 19 are the most on the team. Pivetta also has the highest fly ball rate of any pitcher on the slate (42.1%).
5. Kris Bubic enters with an 81.3% contact rate
Kris Bubic’s sky-high contact rate is the sixth highest in baseball among pitchers with 110 innings. He’s allowed 129 hits over his 111.1 innings, and he checks in with an 88:54 K:BB ratio. When you’re walking nearly five batters per nine innings and you don’t get many swing-and-misses, you’re bound to get into trouble. The Twins have the second-highest team implied total on the slate and they’re missing Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco. A Minnesota stack could be a trap, but they have plenty of value up and down their lineup if you wanted to spend up for two stud pitchers. Jose Miranda and Kyle Garlick are hitting in the three and four spot and they lead all active Twins’ players in home runs vs. LHP (14 total).
6. Chad Kuhl has a league-high 9.08 ERA since July 1
I know what you’re thinking — Chad Kuhl plays a majority of his games at Coors Field. While that’s true, Kuhl has a 6.00 ERA on the road this season compared to a 4.67 mark at home. He’s allowed at least three runs in nine straight starts and 25 total in his past five outings. Three of those outings came on the road where he coughed up 18 hits, 15 runs, six homers and five walks. Kuhl has surrendered at least one home run in nine straight outings and 15 total over that span. The White Sox have been hit or miss all season long and I like them more against lefties, but Kuhl has a near 80% contact rate and Chicago ranks sixth in OPS and wOBA over the last 30 days. José Abreu and Eloy Jiménez have combined for 19 home runs against RHP and they’re both hitting over .300. Elvis Andrus just needed out of Oakland, because he’s the ninth-best fantasy baseball player over the last month: .321 AVG (18/56), 11 runs, five homers & 1 SB. He has six multi-hit games in his last nine contests, he’s dirt cheap and should lead off for the White Sox. AJ Pollock is also on a bit of a heater, and nobody has had more hits than Abreu since July 1 (118).
7. Cory Abbott has a 12% barrel rate
Cory Abbott doesn’t have enough innings to qualify, but that would be the highest barrel rate in the league, according to Statcast. Abbott’s teammate Patrick Corbin leads the way with a 11.5% mark, and I think we all know what to do when Corbin takes the ball. Abbott won’t last long in this contest and then we’ll see Washington’s bullpen (4.14 ERA). Five of the 11 home runs Abbott has allowed have been to lefties and the O’s will have five in their lineup and they’ll start the game with three straight LHH. It’s a very small sample size, but Abbott has a 66% fly ball rate (58% for his career), which is a massive red flag. We could see Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander and Ryan Mountcastle all go deep in this contest.
