Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Baseball lends itself to numerical intrigue — there have long been bountiful statistics surrounding the game, and in today’s analytics heavy version of the game, there are more numbers than ever before. Knowing what numbers are meaningful and from which actionable information can be ascertained can make all the difference. The margins have never been thinner, and the impact of every discernible edge has never been more pronounced. Here are some of the numbers that jump out at me when taking a look at Tuesday’s DFS slate.
1. 5
This is the most innings Minnesota SP Cole Sands has gone in the minor leagues this season. Perhaps more importantly, he has been “reverse stretched” — that is to say he started the season having gone 5 innings in each of his first two starts and has failed to get anywhere close to that since, generally going 2-3 innings. This may be part of easing him back into a starter’s workload, although sending him out for a full five-and-dive to start the season would seem counterintuitive to that, or it may indicate he has some potential as an opener. Ryne Staneks do not just grow on trees after all, they need to be cultivated somewhere.
Whatever the case may be, I mention all of this as Sands is likely to be intriguing as a big-bodied, high K% arm that is facing the Tigers with the wind blowing in — all of those things scream value play for a sub-$5K price. But if the absolute best-case scenario is 5 innings, and we haven’t seen that happen since April, we’re likely setting ourselves up for disappointment, especially on such a large slate. Yes, it is still possible that he piles up a bunch of Ks across 3 innings or so, but you’re talking about a very narrow range of outcomes for a guy the Twins are clearly being delicate with.
2. 33.1%
This is Cristian Javier’s K% thus far, which is astounding considering he has only a middling 26.7 CSW%. He also gets a creme de la creme matchup with the lowly Athletics and is coming off performances against the Rangers and Guardians, each of whom are not easy to strike out (the Guardians at the time had the lowest team K% in all of MLB) wherein he struck out 9 in each outing. He also gets a ballpark upgrade and will need to be locked in as the A’s will be trotting out an ace of their own in Frankie Montas. It is entirely possible that Javier puts up the best score on this slate by a good margin, with all of the other aces or ace adjacent SPs in either tough matchups, or tough weather, or both.
It’s rare that I get excited about a converted reliever that is yet to show much length (has not yet pitched more than 6 innings), but this combination of matchup, current form and ballpark/pitching conditions is too much to pass up.
3. 22.1%
I am going to assume George Kirby is going to be very popular on this slate — his price is way, way down. He strikes out everyone. He’s a new and exciting rookie and what fun is DFS if you don’t roster the new and exciting rookie at every opportunity? Well, this is one you might want to back away from, slowly. The Orioles… are actually not so bad anymore against RHPs. Their K% is only 22.1%, which is the same as the Mariners and Blue Jays, and while you will never get the theoretical matchup of Kirby against the Mariners, would you be so aggressively interested in using Kirby against the Blue Jays? I would imagine not.
I won’t go so far as to say you should stack the Orioles, but the Orioles did just put up 10 runs against the Red Sox at Fenway, so they are seeing the ball well enough. If you’re looking for leverage against a highly rostered and highly skilled but also highly inexperienced arm, an Orioles stack would be an ideal way to accomplish that.
4. 96.4
This is the average four-seam velocity for the coverboy for increased velocity, Mitch Keller. It hasn’t made one an iota of difference in his underlying metrics thus far, he still has a sub-20% K rate and gets barreled a good bit, which resulted in him being banished from the rotation for a start until the lack of talent and mounting injuries amongst the Pirates other options forced him back into duty.
With the Dodgers looming, and having put up a lackluster performance against Zach Thompson, as well as a very large slate, we might have an opportunity to stack a low owned Dodgers team that is capable of putting up 10 plus runs at any time against Mitch Keller, who is Mitch Keller, and also the Pirates bullpen, who almost gave the game away last night and burned their “best” arms in so doing.
5. 2.3%
This is Kevin Gausman’s walk rate, which is absolutely ridiculous. If he’s not the front runner for the AL Cy Young at this point in the season, I’m not sure who is. He is also striking hitters out at nearly a 30% clip so the amount of contact being made isn’t much, and of that contact, less than 30% is hard contact. Also, less than 35% of the contact is fly balls. If you were to design a pitcher in a lab (say a Driveline lab, perhaps?) but require the skill set be realistic, I’m not so sure Gausman would qualify, but a pitcher who strikes out everyone, walks out no one, and doesn’t allow hard contact or fly balls is pretty darn perfect for DFS.
He also gets a matchup with an underwhelming and injured White Sox lineup that just lost Tim Anderson as well. This is a great spot for him, and while he is a tick more expensive than Cristian Javier, it’s tough to not try to find a way to get exposure to him as well. If the value can be found elsewhere (with Orioles bats, perhaps?), pairing Gausman and Javier should give you a tremendous floor with an 80 DK point ceiling.
6. 34.6%
This is the Braves’ hard contact rate so far this season, first in all of MLB. It presents an interesting battle and juxtaposition of styles, as they will be going up against Humberto Castellanos who has only a 15% K rate so will be allowing plenty of balls in play, but also has allowed only a 6.1% barrel rate and sub 30% hard contact. However, in Castellanos last outing against the Dodgers, everything came apart at the seams, with him allowing a season high 6 runs on 10 hits while striking out only 1 and got chased after only 4 innings of work.
So what wins out here? Is it the Braves pension for power? Or will Castellanos be able to avoid contact that does major damage while scattering some baserunners around the strikeouts the Braves are sure to pile up (they are also first in K% at 26%)? This is an extremely interesting matchup of styles that should be fascinating to watch play out.
7. 17.9% and 17.5%
Adam Wainwright at home has for some reason become a thing, and I’m not really sure why. His underlying metrics are almost identical on the road and at home, and he’s a pretty average SP, especially for DFS purposes as his corresponding K% splits denoted above represent. There will likely be some moderate interest in using him for the stable floor he provides at a non-exorbitant price, especially facing a scuffling Padres team and *pitching at home*, but I am here to tell you not to buy the hype. This is just a dude (lowercase d) and he will get middling, unexciting results at best. I am very much not here for “Home Adam Wainwright.”
