Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Friday’s DFS slate.
1. Brandon Woodruff has 27 strikeouts in 17 innings since returning from the injured list
Brandon Woodruff is the top pitcher on the slate, not only because of his track record, but he’s pitched really well recently. He’s in an OK spot as he gets a ballpark upgrade going on the road to face San Francisco, but the Giants are eighth in all of baseball averaging 4.69 runs per game at home. Still, Woodruff has a 31% K%, 5% BB% and 3.53 xFIP on the season. His ERA since coming off the injured list is 2.12, though, and he’s struck out at least eight batters in all three of his starts while going five, six and six innings. Woodruff threw 92 and 94 pitches in his last two starts so that would be his floor for pitch count here with room for growth. The Giants’ projected lineup has a 32% K% combined against right-handed pitching this season, which only adds to the upside here for Woodruff.
2. Patrick Sandoval has a 3.18 ERA in his last five starts
Patrick Sandoval has a 2.95 ERA on the season, but his xFIP is much higher at 4.31. He’s also facing the Dodgers at home, which is a tough matchup as Los Angeles is second in all of baseball averaging 5.13 runs per game on the road. The Angels are 6-26 in their last 32 games started by anyone but Shohei Ohtani. No one will want to play Sandoval here, making him a contrarian option in tournaments. He’s been consistent of late going at least five innings and striking out at least five batters in each of his last five starts. Sandoval has a 2.84 ERA at home this season. At $8,100 on DraftKings, I don’t know if Sandoval will make my main lineup, but he’s definitely in play if you’re making multiple lineups.
3. Yu Darvish has a 1.69 ERA in 53.1 innings at home
Yu Darvish has a 3.38 ERA and 4.75 xFIP this season, but he’s pitched better lately as he has a 2.41 ERA in his last six starts. While on other slates his price and rostership may be inflated due to name value, I don’t believe that’s happening here. At $8,900 on DraftKings, Darvish is one of my favorite pitchers on this slate pitching at home against the Diamondbacks. Arizona is a middle of the road offense averaging 4.34 runs per game on the road, but their lineup is heavily left-handed, and I believe that plays into Darvish’s strength here. He’s allowed just an .084 ISO to left-handed hitters and has a 41% ground ball percentage against left-handed hitters.
4. José Quintana has a 4.41 ERA on the road
José Quintana is enjoying his best season on the mound in years. If the season ended right now, his 3.59 ERA would be better than he’s posted since 2016. Still, his xFIP is 4.30 and he’s pitched worse on the road with a 4.41 ERA. The Rockies lead baseball averaging 5.88 runs per game at home so this will be Quintana’s most difficult road test. Quintana has allowed a .152 ISO to right-handed hitters this season. Rockies right-handed hitters Kris Bryant, C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk all have ISOs above .200 against left-handed pitching this year. The Rockies are in consideration as one of the top stacks.
5. Patrick Corbin has allowed a .186 ISO to right-handed batters
The Braves have five right-handed hitters with at least a .200 ISO against left-handed pitchers this season in Ronald Acuña Jr., Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley, Adam Duvall and William Contreras. The Braves are mostly expensive, but if there’s a team to hunt for home runs make it the team that leads the National League in home runs by 20 entering play Friday. Corbin has already faced the Braves twice this year and allowed at least four earned runs in each of those games. In one of those starts, back in April, he failed to make it out of the third inning against Atlanta. Adam Duvall ($3,400) could be a very good play tonight as he’s not only cheap, but the Braves have moved him up to fifth in the batting order. Matt Olson is left-handed, but he’s also a really good play because he remains underpriced at $4,600 and has four home runs in the past three games.
6. Germán Márquez has a 7.17 ERA at home
Germán Márquez has a 4.75 xFIP, which isn’t good, but he’s been absolutely terrible at Coors Field this year. The Pirates perhaps aren’t the worst matchup given Pittsburgh is 28th in all of baseball averaging 3.38 runs per game on the road. Marquez’ big problem this year has been power prevention to right-handed hitters as he’s allowed a .263 ISO to right-handed hitters. While I don’t have the Pirates’ official lineup at the time of this writing, this roster simply doesn’t have the right-handed hitters to take advantage of this weakness as the only right-handed hitters in the Pirates projected lineup are Ke’Bryan Hayes, who has a .076 ISO against right-handed pitching, and Jake Marisnick, who has a career .639 OPS against right-handed pitching. Still, Marquez has allowed a .173 ISO to left-handed hitters and Daniel Vogelbach, Oneil Cruz and Jack Suwinski all have ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching. The Pirates are all pretty cheap, so I imagine they’ll be one of the more popular stacks on this slate.
7. Drew Hutchison has a 6.15 xFIP
Drew Hutchison has a 4.08 ERA, but his xFIP is a full two runs higher because he doesn’t strike out many batters. He has a 14% K% and 11% BB%, but his saving grace is his 40% ground ball percentage. His ground ball percentage isn’t even that low, I guess his saving grace is his 0.76 HR/9. Hutchison has only allowed three home runs, though two of those have come since he moved into the starting rotation. In four starts, Hutchison has a 3.66 ERA in 19.2 innings. He struck out seven and walked five in that time. Hutchison beat the Guardians at home 10 days ago and in his last start recorded his first quality start at the major league level since 2016 against the White Sox. Still, he can’t keep getting away with this, right? Hutchison has allowed a .170 ISO to left-handed hitters, and I want to prioritize the lefties in Cleveland stacks tonight. José Ramírez, Andrés Giménez, Josh Naylor and Nolan Jones all have ISOs above .197 against right-handed pitching this year. Cleveland’s home ballpark is advantageous for left-handed hitters as the outfield wall is much higher in left field. The Guardians are one of my favorite stacks Friday.
