Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the five stats I find most relevant to Thursday’s DFS slate.
1. Germán Márquez has allowed a .235 ISO to right-handed batters
It’s a small slate and a Coors slate. Germán Márquez has a 6.11 ERA at home this year. The Cardinals lineup has a lot of right-handed power in it, as Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado and Paul DeJong all have ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching. Tyler O’Neill had a .269 ISO against right-handed pitching last year. Left-handed hitters Lars Nootbaar and Nolan Gorman each have ISOs above .195 against right-handed pitching. Nootbaar at $2,200 on DraftKings is one of the best value plays on the entire slate. The Cardinals are certainly a priority stack.
2. Dakota Hudson has a 5.40 xFIP
On the other side of the Coors game, we have the Rockies going up against Dakota Hudson. While I don’t think much of Hudson, I do have more interest in the Cardinals as a stack. The Cardinals are a better offense than the Rockies and Marquez will have a longer leash than Hudson here. If the Rockies are going to get to Hudson, they’re going to have to do it early in the game because since acquiring added starting pitching depth at the trade deadline St. Louis has used Andre Pallante to piggyback Hudson out of the bullpen. Hudson likely only goes four innings here. C.J. Cron and Charlie Blackmon are the only hitters in the Colorado lineup with at least a .200 ISO against right-handed pitching. Sam Hilliard at $2,500 on DraftKings is your value play here.
3. Kyle Gibson has a 4.65 xFIP
A first-round pick by the Marlins in 2019, JJ Bleday has had his two best games in the majors over the last two days. He hit his second big-league home run Tuesday and then last night had a three-hit game that included a double, triple, two RBIs and a run scored. Bleday is still $2,100 on DraftKings and likely batting fourth once again for Miami against Gibson. Gibson is coming off one of his better starts of the season as he completed eight innings and allowed just two hits and one earned run last time out.
4. Merrill Kelly has a 1.49 ERA since the beginning of July
Merrill Kelly has been fantastic over his last seven starts. It won’t last forever, but I definitely believe we can use him while this is going on. He has a 2.97 FIP over this stretch and his price has shot up to $9,100 on DraftKings, but his 38:9 SO:BB ratio over this stretch is nothing to shake your fist at. The Pirates are 27th in all of baseball averaging 3.34 runs per game on the road this season. Kelly has allowed a .111 ISO to both right-handed and left-handed batters this season. Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz are the only players in the Pirates lineup with ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching this season.
5. Dylan Cease has a 32% K%
Dylan Cease has struck out at least five batters in five of his last six starts. Kansas City is 26th in the league, averaging 3.86 runs per game at home this year. Six hitters in the Royals lineup have a K% above 20% against right-handed pitching. Cease is the most expensive pitcher on the slate at $10,400 on DraftKings, but ultimately I think he’ll be worth spending up for here. Framber Valdez is a little less expensive at $9,800 on DraftKings and he’s been very consistent this year, but I have more interest in using Cease at significantly lower rostership.
