Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the five stats I find most relevant to Thursday’s DFS slate.
1. Oakland is dead last with 2.48 runs per game at home
While this is only a tiny three-game slate, there are a surprising number of pitching options. Let’s start with Tarik Skubal, who has the best matchup on the slate facing the Athletics in Oakland. While Skubal has a 4.11 ERA on the season, he hasn’t been very good lately as he has a 7.46 ERA over his last seven starts. He’s seen his price fall on Draftkings to $7,100 here making one of the most attractive pitching options on the slate very affordable. The Athletics figure to roll out an entirely right-handed lineup here and Skubal has a 25% K% against right-handed batters this season. Only Sean Murphy and Ramón Laureano are the power threats to worry about as they’re the only two hitters in Oakland’s lineup with at least a .200 ISO against left-handed pitching this season.
2. Jon Gray has struck out at least 7 batters in each of his last 4 starts
Unlike Skubal, Jon Gray has been effective lately and actually has a lower ERA at 3.76 at this point in the season. Gray is more expensive at $8,600, which makes him the second-most expensive pitcher on this slate. He has a 28% K% against right-handed batters and the Miami lineup has seven right-handed batters and seven hitters with at least a 20% K% against right-handed pitching this season. Gray hasn’t faced the Marlins yet this season, but he hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in each of his last seven starts. Miami is 21st in all of baseball averaging 4.09 runs per game at home. Jesús Sánchez is the only real power threat to worry about as he’s the only hitter in Miami’s lineup with at least a .200 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
3. Pablo López has a 2.86 ERA
Pablo López is one of the best pitchers on this pitching rich slate. He’s probably the most established name and has the lowest ERA. However, he hasn’t been great on the mound recently and has seen his price fall. López has a 4.01 ERA over his last six starts and is priced at $7,700 on DraftKings this afternoon. The problem with López for me on this slate is the matchup with the Rangers. Texas can roll out a lineup with as many as seven left-handed hitters here, and López’ K% is 28% against right-handed batters, but only 19% K% against left-handed batters. He’s also allowed a .186 ISO to lefties compared to just .139 ISO to right-handed hitters. Given the other pitching options on this slate, I can see fading López and using Rangers’ left-handed batters against him. Leody Taveras ($2,600), Josh Smith ($3,400) and Kole Calhoun ($3,000) are all very affordable, while Corey Seager ($5,900) is understandably expensive.
4. Cristian Javier has struck out at least 10 in 3 of his last 4 starts
Cristian Javier is the most expensive pitcher on the slate at $9,500. He doesn’t have the best matchup as he’s facing the Yankees at home. New York is first in all of baseball averaging 5.56 runs per game on the road. Still, he didn’t have much trouble facing the Yankees on the road four starts ago when he struck out 13 batters in New York. He’s followed that up by striking out 31 batters in the 15.2 innings he’s thrown since then. There’s no secret to how Javier will approach the Yankees or go about paying off his top price on the slate here: he’s going to try to rack up the strikeouts. Javier has a 44% K% against right-handed batters and the Yankees project to be heavily right-handed with six right-handed hitters in the lineup.
5. Zach Logue has a 6.60 xFIP
Zach Logue is clearly the worst pitcher on the slate. The Tigers are also clearly the worst offense on the slate. Detroit is dead last in all of baseball averaging 2.62 runs per game on the road this season. Still, the Tigers hitters make sense to use for some value on this slate. Javier Báez and Eric Haase are in the $4,000 range, but each has an ISO above .200 against left-handed pitching since the beginning of last year. Logue has allowed a .270 ISO to right-handed hitters this year. Switch-hitter Robbie Grossman had a .198 ISO against left-handed pitching last year and is just $2,300. Leadoff hitter Riley Greene ($3,200) and Jonathan Schoop ($2,700) are also in play.
