Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the five stats I find most relevant to Thursday’s MLB DFS slate.
1. Aaron Nola struck out 10 Braves the last time he faced them
Aaron Nola is pretty clearly the best pitcher on this slate. He’s the highest-priced pitcher on DraftKings at $10,000. Nola has a 2.98 ERA, 3.38 xFIP, 29% K%, 3% BB% and 44% ground ball percentage this year. The Braves offense has a lot of power even without Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ozzie Albies, but Nola struck out 10 Braves the last time he faced them. He also struck out 10 in his last start which came against the Padres, another team missing two of its top position players. I expect Nola to take advantage of Atlanta when they’re at their weakest. He’s my top overall pitcher on the slate.
2. Oakland is 25th in baseball with 3.85 runs per game on the road
Logan Gilbert is my second-favorite pitcher on this slate among the expensive options. He’s $9,500 on DraftKings. Gilbert has a 2.44 ERA, 4.19 xFIP, 25% K%, 7% BB% and 35% ground ball percentage this year. He’s completed at least six innings in seven of his last eight starts, which is the kind of consistency we expect to see from a pitcher in this price range. Gilbert hasn’t faced the Athletics yet this season, but Oakland’s offense is terrible. The Athletics are second to last in all of baseball in runs scored and their performance doesn’t get much better on the road as Oakland is 25th in all of baseball with 3.85 runs per game on the road. The Athletics also have six hitters with at least a 23% K% against right-handed pitching this season, which gives Gilbert some added strikeout upside in this matchup.
3. Luis Severino has a 2.67 xERA
Luis Severino just faced the Astros in his last start and he provided a quality start going six innings, allowing three earned runs, and striking out seven batters. Severino has a 3.38 ERA, 3.72 xFIP, 29% K%, 7% BB% and 42% ground ball percentage. The big news item as it relates to this game and Severino is the fact that Yordan Alvarez, who has been on fire with nine home runs in the month of June, is not in the starting lineup. Alvarez was involved in an on-field collision Wednesday with shortstop Jeremy Peña, who is also not in the starting lineup. The Astros have a deep lineup, but the only notable names in there Thursday are Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel. I expect Severino to have the upper hand against a watered-down version of the Astros that’ll be out there, and I think Vegas agrees as the Yankees moneyline has moved from +100 Wednesday to -130.
4. JT Brubaker has a 4.97 xFIP
JT Brubaker has actually been decent lately — three of his last four starts have been quality starts — but he did give up four runs against the Brewers the one time he’s faced them this year back in April. Brubaker has allowed a .186 ISO to left-handed batters this year. Milwaukee has three left-handed power hitters with ISOs of at least .195 against right-handed pitching in Rowdy Tellez, Kolten Wong and Jace Peterson. Christian Yelich and Omar Narváez don’t have the ISO to clear that threshold, but they’re both left-handed and Yelich is batting leadoff these days. Willy Adames and Tyrone Taylor are right-handed, but each have an ISO above .200 against right-handed pitching this season. There are plenty of different ways to stack the Brewers and they’re one of my favorite stacks on the slate.
5. Kyle Hendricks has a 5.15 xFIP
Kyle Hendricks is an interesting pitcher at this stage of his career. I said “interesting,” not “good.” He’s not particularly good at this point in his career. Hendricks has a 4.90 ERA, 5.15 xFIP, 17% K%, 6% BB%, and 36% ground ball percentage. He’s not what he was, the pitcher who had consistent ERA seasons under 4.00 and a 2.88 ERA in 2020 is gone. Still, Hendricks can occasionally flash some promise as he did in his last start where he threw 7.1 scoreless innings and struck out six against the Cardinals. The start before that he failed to complete the fifth inning and allowed six runs to the Atlanta Braves. In that game against the Braves, Atlanta hitters were setting up closer to the pitcher in the batter’s box as a way to get out ahead of Hendricks’ changeup. It seemed to work in that start as Hendricks wasn’t long for the game and I even noticed on Travis d’Arnaud’s home run in that game that he hit the changeup before it could break late. Brandon Drury is the guy I’m starting my Reds stacks with against Hendricks. Drury leads the Reds with a .217 ISO against right-handed pitching this season and has a .294 ISO against changeups from right-handed pitchers over the last three seasons. Hendricks throws his changeup 33% of the time to right-handed batters this year. Drury is $4,900 on DraftKings, but Joey Votto, who crushes the Cubs historically, is only $3,600. If Mike Moustakas is in the lineup, he’s only $3,100, eligible at both first and third base, and has a .341 ISO against changeups from right-handed pitchers over the last three years.
