Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than in any other sport. These are the five stats I find most relevant to today’s DFS slate.
5 Stats to Know for Monday’s MLB slate
1. The top projected pitcher in our Strikeout Model barely eclipses 13 DK points
The difference in projection between Ranger Suárez (the highest projection) and Paul Blackburn (the lowest projection) is less than 10 points. This is the result of all pitchers being limited due to the short spring training, as well as the fact that all teams threw their aces several days ago.
From a DFS perspective, this means we want to prioritize hitting, since it’s unlikely that we can separate with pitching.
2. The Angels have the second-highest HR Rating and the top projected ISO against the starter
Elieser Hernandez has shown flashes at times, but he still throws about 90% fastballs or sliders. Two-pitch pitchers notoriously struggle in the majors, and unfortunately for him, the Angels match up extremely well with him.
Both Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani are excellent against both the fastball and the slider, while Trout and Anthony Rendon destroy his attempt at a third pitch, a changeup. Jared Walsh and whoever gets the nod behind the plate between Max Stassi and Kurt Suzuki also match up quite well with Hernandez.
Last, but certainly not least, is the fact that Hernandez has the highest baseline ISO allowed on the slate at .242.
3. Paul Blackburn throws 26% cutters and 42% sinkers
Since the 4-seam fastball is the most common fastball, when a pitcher deviates from that, it provides an opportunity to target hitters who excel against pitches they rarely get to face (and therefore project well above their baselines). Tampa has a few hitters who fit the bill.
Excel against cutters:
Excel against sinkers:
- Wander Franco (big time)
- Brett Phillips
- Randy Arozarena
- Yandy Díaz
4. Dylan Bundy had a 29.9% CSW last season, suggesting he was much better than his results
Bundy’s last four years paint an interesting picture:
His true expected SIERA is almost certainly between 4.0 and 4.5, which makes him underpriced at $5600 against Seattle. He’s fifth on the slate in projected DK points and has the third-best threshold probabilities.
5. Ranger Suárez averaged 14.7 pitches per inning in 2021
Fifteen pitches per inning is the benchmark for elite pitch-per-inning efficiency. Chris Flexen is the only other pitcher on the slate under 15 pitches per inning, but take a look at their strikeout rates:
- Ranger Suárez: 23.7%
- Chris Flexen: 17.2%
If you’re curious why Suarez is the top-projected pitcher in the Strikeout Model, look no further – it’s this combination of pitch-per-inning efficiency and strikeout upside.
