Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Going into every fantasy baseball draft season, most of us already know the players we’re going to be targeting heavily in drafts. The “initial targets” if you will. Then, a second grouping of players gets added to the mix due to their respective ADPs being too good to pass up. Throw it all together with a shiny ribbon and a bow on top, and you have what you can classify as “My guys.”
That’s what I’m going to be discussing in this week’s Crossed Up. As we near the final month of draft season, I’ve found myself targeting a group of players heavily in drafts that I believe can provide me a solid return on investment this season.
I guess you’d say, what can make me feel this way?
My guys, my guys, my guys.
Talkin’ ’bout my guys.
My guys!
(Offense this week. Check back next week for the pitching side of things.)
‘My Guys’ for 2024 Fantasy Baseball: Hitters
Triston Casas, 1B, Boston Red Sox
ADP since Jan. 1: 111.6 (1B 9)
Triston Casas having an ADP outside of the top 100 is downright robbery. It’s almost like people have forgotten that he was a top-five hitter in baseball over the second half of the season or something. From July 8 through the end of the season, Casas slashed .319/.417/.622 with 15 home runs in 216 plate appearances while tying for fourth in wRC+ and wOBA with some guy named Ronald Acuña.
For what Casas is capable of and the second half he’s coming off of, I’m shocked that his ADP is outside the top 100 right now. In 2023, Casas recorded a 13.1% barrel rate, 46.6% hard-hit rate and a 91.1 mph AVG EV with a 13.9% walk rate. He’ll be hitting right in the middle of a solid Boston lineup with Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers in front of him. It wouldn’t surprise me if Casas outperformed Vladimir Guerrero this season.
Jake Burger, 3B, Miami Marlins
ADP since Jan. 1: 156.7 (3B 13)
If you find yourself targeting other positions in the first 8-9 rounds and want to wait on third base, you can absolutely do so this season with guys like Jake Burger and Noelvi Marte available after pick 150. Burger broke out in a big way last season, smashing 34 home runs in 540 plate appearances with 71 runs, 80 RBI, and a .250/.309/.518 slash line. He was especially dominant over the final 47 games of the season with Miami, slashing .316/.359/.525 with 13 doubles and eight home runs.
That power is 100% legit too. Burger was always a power-first bat in the minors and recorded a 16.7% barrel rate, 49.6% hard-hit rate and 91.9 mph AVG EV last season. While his below-average contact and walk rates along with his higher chase and whiff rates will likely keep the AVG in the .250 range with a lower OBP as well, that could come with 40-plus home runs this season while flirting with 100 RBIs.
Jarren Duran, OF, Boston Red Sox
ADP since Jan. 1: 164 (OF 36)
There are so many good values from the Boston Red Sox in 2024 drafts. Casas is the biggest name, but don’t sleep on Jarren Duran finishing 2024 as a top-50 player for fantasy purposes. In 2023, Duran finished with 46 runs, eight home runs, 40 RBIs and 24 steals with a .295/.346/.482 slash line. If you extrapolate that out over 650 plate appearances, you’d have 83 runs, 14 home runs, 72 RBI, and 43 steals. That’s the upside Duran possesses this season.
Duran posted an 89.9 mph AVG EV, 46.3% hard-hit rate and 96th percentile sprint speed last season and has had an AVG EV above 89 mph in each of his first three seasons with Boston. On top of that, he recorded an 85.7% zone contact rate and 75.7% overall contact rate. The power output is likely capped around 15-17, but that could come with 40 steals, a decent AVG, and maybe even close to 100 runs as Duran will be leading off in front of Rafael Devers and Triston Casas.
Noelvi Marte, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
ADP since Jan. 1: 167.9 (3B 15)
As of now, Noelvi Marte is my second-most rostered player in NFBC drafts, so it wouldn’t feel right if I didn’t include him in this space. A player with Marte’s upside in a hitter’s haven who debuted last season and performed well simply shouldn’t be available at this stage of your draft. The only reason why Marte is going 30-50 picks behind Evan Carter is because Carter shined in the postseason en route to a World Series championship, while Marte and the Reds missed the postseason.
In 123 plate appearances with Cincinnati last season, Marte slashed .316/.366/.456 with three home runs and six steals. This after posting 11 home runs and 18 steals in 92 games before his promotion to the Reds. He was one of just eight hitters (Duran was another one) that had a hard-hit rate above 45% and a 90th percentile or better sprint speed last season with a minimum of 50 batted balls.
Marte never had that gaudy offensive line that we have become accustomed to with top prospects, but he’s an above-average hitter with a plus power/speed blend who will get to play half of his games in Great American Ballpark. The upside is a 25/15 (or better) player with a decent AVG and OBP to go with it, and it wouldn’t shock me if he reached those marks in 2024.
James Outman, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
ADP since Jan. 1: 196.5 (OF 43)
Can someone please explain to me why James Outman’s ADP is near pick 200? This makes zero sense. Outman finished 2023 as the 102nd-most valuable player on the Razzball Player Rater thanks to 23 home runs, 16 steals, 70 RBIs and 86 runs scored along with a .248/.353/.437 slash line. He was one of just nine hitters in 2023 with a .350-plus OBP and more than 20 home runs, 15 steals, and 80 runs scored.
Yet, despite all of that and the fact that he’ll be hitting in the Dodgers loaded lineup, Outman’s ADP is near pick 200. That bleep is bananas, B-A-N-A-N-A-S. Outman will likely never be more than a .250-.260 hitter given his 31.9% strikeout rate and below average contact metrics, but he has the power and speed blend to continue posting 25/15 caliber seasons with 150+ runs and RBI to go along with it. If he even replicates or comes closer to replicating his 2023 performance, he’s already a steal at this ADP. And if Outman, a young player, takes a realistic step forward, he’s a top-100 player.
Brandon Nimmo, OF, New York Mets
ADP since Jan. 1: 198.3 (OF 44)
I’ve often said that sexy and flashy doesn’t always lead to fantasy championships. Players like Brandon Nimmo are perfect examples of that. Nobody is going to get tingles shooting down their fingertips when they click the draft button and add Nimmo to their team, but he’s going to be an outfielder that I’m going to bet targeting heavily this year due to his underrated and solid profile along with a steal of an ADP close to pick 200.
Over the last two seasons, Nimmo has averaged 95.5 runs scored, 20 home runs, 66 RBIs and three steals while hitting .274 each season along with an OBP north of .360. In 2023, Nimmo ranked in the top 40% of hitters in xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, AVG EV, hard-hit rate, barrel rate, chase rate, whiff rate and walk rate. He’s proven to be a steady three-category producer that will once again be hitting leadoff in front of Jeff McNeill, Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso. The price tag is simply too good to pass up.
Parker Meadows, OF, Detroit Tigers
ADP since Jan. 1: 284.9 (OF 65)
As we approach the last month of 2024 draft season, my most rostered player right now is Detroit’s Parker Meadows. When I saw his ADP near pick 300 in early drafts, I immediately knew that I’d have plenty of shares this season. If you combined Meadows’ Triple-A and Major League numbers, he finished 2023 with 97 runs, 22 home runs, 78 RBIs and 27 steals in 662 plate appearances. In the minors, Meadows averaged 18 home runs and 19 steals per 650 plate appearance and those numbers increased to 24 and 22 respectively over the last two seasons.
With Detroit, Meadows registered a 9% barrel rate and 90th percentile sprint speed while also walking 11.7% of the time with above-average zone and overall contact rates. The skills are here to post a .260/20/20 season in 2024 with plenty of runs as Detroit’s primary leadoff hitter in front of Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter.
Jordan Westburg, 2B/3B, Baltimore Orioles
ADP since Jan. 1: 312.6 (2B 28 & 3B 27)
Many right now are questioning how much Jordan Westburg plays this season given all the other exciting young options Baltimore has at their disposal right now. Those are valid concerns, but however, I believe Westburg’s defensive versatility is going to help him get into the lineup regularly this season.
At this time last year, Westburg was considered by some to be a top-50 or even a top-25 prospect in fantasy-focused rankings. He was coming off a .265/96/27/106/12 campaign in the upper minors in 2022 and added 18 home runs, six steals and a .295/.372/.567 slash line in Triple-A before his promotion to Baltimore. And while the numbers weren’t stellar with Baltimore, Westburg still put up a 90.2 mph AVG EV, 44.5% hard-hit rate and 88th percentile sprint speed with around league average zone contact and overall contact rates.
If Westburg gets around 600 plate appearances this season, he’s a threat to flirt with 20/20 while having eligibility at both second and third base, which also means you can slot him at corner or middle infield. That upside and versatility is highly intriguing after pick 300.
More of ‘My Guys’
Matt McLain, 2B/SS, Cincinnati Reds
The five-category impact with dual eligibility in baseball’s best hitter’s park is too good to pass up in the ADP 60-75 range. Let’s just hope Matt McLain’s oblique injury doesn’t make him miss the start of the season.
Tyler O’Neill, OF, Boston Red Sox
Tyler O’Neill has had a tough last two seasons after his big 2021 campaign, but he improved his walk, strikeout and contact rates in the process and he still has the power and speed to go 25/15 over a full season. Hopefully, a fresh start in Boston jumpstarts his career.
Gavin Lux, 2B/SS/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
We haven’t seen Gavin Lux since 2022, but he’s set to return to a loaded Dodgers lineup and will have tri-eligibility at second base, shortstop and outfield by the end of April. The upside isn’t massive, but Lux could easily go 15/15 with a solid average.
Maikel Garcia, 3B, Kansas City Royals
In very sneaky fashion, Maikel Garcia posted a 91.8 mph AVG EV, 50.6% hard-hit rate and stole 23 bags last year. The problem is, he hit most of those hard-hit BBE into the ground. If he can start driving the ball in the air more consistently, a breakout season could be in store.
Luis Campusano, C, San Diego Padres
Luis Campusano slashed .319/.356/.491 with a 550 plate appearance pace of 85 runs, 22 home runs and 95 RBIs. Now he gets to be the locked-in starter behind the plate in San Diego this season. Given his combination of contact, approach, and power, Campusano has the upside to finish as a top-10 catcher this season and is currently the 17th catcher off the board on average.
