2025 MLB Most Valuable Player Awards Odds and Best Bets

We are officially two games into the 2025 MLB season, following the Tokyo Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs, but it’s not too late to make MVP predictions on the futures market.

Ahead of domestic Opening Day, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani are the betting favorites to win the award in their respective league, and for good reason. Judge has won AL MVP honors twice in the last three years. Ohtani has collected three MVP trophies in the last four years. That said, there are plenty of other talented players in the MLB, with much more enticing betting odds to take home hardware in 2025.

Below, I take a look at a couple potential first-time MVP award winners to consider going into the new campaign.

2025 MLB MVP Award Best Bets

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays

(+1700, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Have we become bored with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.? It’s fair to wonder if his sustained excellence has become something we simply take for granted. Even the Blue Jays seem to have fallen victim to this odd way of thinking, reportedly low-balling Guerrero during contract extension talks this past winter.

In 2024, Guerrero was the league’s best breaking ball hitter, in addition to demolishing fastballs and off-speed offerings at an elite rate. He also continued to be one of the most selectively aggressive hitters in the league, doing damage on mistake pitches, but infrequently chasing bad pitches out of the zone.

He was one of only 12 hitters (min. 400 PA) to have a BB% and K% better than the league average, and a 10%-plus barrel rate. Guerrero has now accomplished that feat in each of the last four seasons, giving him one of the highest floors of any player in the league. He’s also played in 696 of a possible 708 regular season games (98.3%) since the beginning of 2020, making him one of the most reliable players in baseball.

Entering 2025, Guerrero is still only 26 years old. He’s coming off of the second-best season of his entire career and now appears to be more focused than ever, with a potential life-changing payday awaiting him in free agency at the conclusion of this season. This is a player capable of winning AL MVP this year.

Current Odds

Here’s a look at the current AL MVP Odds, per DraftKings Sportsbook:

Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres

(+1000, Caesars)

Fernando Tatis Jr. ended last season with a 135 wRC+ and 21 home runs, enjoying a notable spike in barrel%, hard-hit% and in-zone contact%, compared to his 2023 campaign. Tatis was one of only 35 MLB players (min. 400 PA) to have a K% and barrel% better than league average. From that list, 31 players had a 105 wRC+ or better, 18 had a 120 wRC+ or better. Put another way, being able to barrel the ball at a high rate while keeping strikeouts to a palatable number is a high-floor/high-upside skill set.

If we restrict the criteria to only players with an 11.0% barrel rate or better — a threshold Tatis has posted in each of his MLB seasons — there were only 14 players who made the cut. All of those players ended 2024 with a 115 wRC+ or better, with seven posting a 151 wRC+ or better.

A key driver of Tatis’ success in 2024 was his improved plate discipline. Compared to the year prior, he chased significantly fewer pitches out of the zone, meaning that the pitches he was swinging at were offerings he could consistently do damage against. Tatis was one of the league’s premier fastball hitters, and he handled breaking pitches better than most of his peers, too.

This is unquestionably one of the most talented players in the MLB. If he can stay healthy, Tatis has legitimate MVP upside in 2025.

Current Odds

Here’s a look at the current NL MVP Odds, per DraftKings Sportsbook: