Small Ball: Fantasy Baseball Game Theory (Week 25)

If you’re reading this right now, congratulations. You’re one of the lucky ones. Having a chance to win a fantasy baseball title is no small feat.

In fact, I’d argue it’s more satisfying than almost any other title in all of fantasy sports. Sure, fantasy football bragging rights are sweet. Fantasy football typically gets all the glory (and on the opposite end of the spectrum, all of the loser punishments). But winning a fantasy baseball championship is something else. Unlike only 18 weeks of the NFL season, you’ve literally scratched, clawed, grinded, streamed, traded and in some cases lucked your way to the finish line over a six-month haul. No season is longer than that. No fantasy league requires more time and effort than fantasy baseball.

To illustrate that, I remember during the first week of the season saying to myself, “My ratios are toast. Might as well just shoot for wins and strikeouts the rest of the way.” Fast-forward to this week, and I’m clearly in front of the pack in ERA and above-average in the WHIP department. It’s a longggggg season. Those who manage their emotions, make shrewd moves and stay patient will almost always outlast the competition.

So again, if you’re reading this, you’re two weeks away from a rotisserie championship. You also might be 1-2 weeks away from taking down a head-to-head points league title. If you’ve been with me this entire way, I hope these next two weeks net you the ultimate crown. This is the last edition of the Game Theory series for the 2023 season, so let’s make these final weeks the most important – and memorable – ones of the entire journey.

Since we’re so close to the finish line, I’ve decided to duplicate the same format as my Week 23 article. With only two weeks remaining (compared to four), there’s even less reason for us to stay patient with a struggling veteran. Conversely, there’s even more opportunity to ride the hot hand, whether it’s a young player trying to make one final impression, or a pitcher trying to finish the season on a high note.

Let’s go through some players I believe will help us close out a fantasy baseball championship in 2023 – or those who could ruin it for us if we’re not careful.

Crossing the Final Line Part 2

First, let’s recap last article’s selections and close the book on that.

Kerry Carpenter and Spencer Torkelson have been excellent editions for a Tigers team that has nothing to play for. Both players are permanently etched into the lineup card in a premium part of the order, and they are producing across the board. Good call there. Same goes for Triston Casas and DJ Stewart.

On the pitching side, Cole Ragans continues to impress. He’ll be a name to watch in drafts next season the way he’s looked in the final month with the Royals. Unfortunately, Brandon Pfaadt looks like a bad call on my end. I was teased by his productive stretch in August, only to see him get back to his home-run-surrendering ways. My bad.

In terms of players to avoid, Christian Encarnacion-Strand has been serviceable. But with an influx of young Reds players, I’m not sure the power-hitting 1B/3B is going to have as consistent playing time as we expected when he was called up. Luis Arraez has been his usual self, but unless you’re shooting to climb the ladder in the average category (like I noted), he’s not going to win you a title in other areas. Two pitchers, Nathan Eovaldi and Carlos Rodón, have been less than stellar. In fact, I’d argue they’ve hurt you more than helped you so far in September. Continue to steer clear.

Not bad for a score card. Let’s hope these players below perform as well (or as poorly) as last article’s batch.

Players to Target Part 2

Seiya Suzuki, Chicago Cubs

How did this one sneak by me? I think so many people were burned by Seiya Suzuki earlier in the season that they failed to notice his late-year breakout. Suzuki is locked into the middle of the Cubs order, and we know Chicago is still fighting for a wild-card berth these last two weeks. It’d be nice if we could squeeze some steals out of him late – and we did miss the Coors series – but I’m comfortable locking in Suzuki to close out a title.

Jarred Kelenic, Seattle Mariners

Remember him? It seems so long ago that Jarred Kelenic appeared to be one of the best values on draft day. He was a post-hype sleeper. Until he kicked a water cooler and hurt his foot. But he’s back now, and I believe he’s motivated to close out the season strong. There was real, raw emotion in his eyes and in his voice when he apologized to his teammates and the media for the freak injury. The Mariners are still trying to catch Texas and pull away from Toronto for a Wild Card spot. Kelenic is an upgrade over some other guys in that Seattle lineup and should be a fixture these final few weeks.

Note: He’s nursing a sore foot again. I want to see him back in the lineup at least once before pulling the trigger here.

Michael Brantley, Houston Astros

Six months ago, I had Michael Brantley on a Players to Avoid list. It turns out he missed basically the entire season, so it didn’t matter. But like Kelenic, he’s back and part of a Houston Astros lineup that has been mashing the ball in the second half. Brantley might be more of a H2H points league player these final weeks if you’re hurting in the outfield. That’s because Brantley is one of the best bat-to-ball players in the league. He won’t provide much power (though he did homer twice in his first six games back), but he avoids strikeouts and won’t hurt you. I’m willing to gamble on his bat skills and spot in a productive offense to help give us a boost in late-September.

Mason Miller, Oakland Athletics

It feels gross trusting an Oakland A’s pitcher in a championship matchup, but you could do worse than the electric Mason Miller. He was a hot waiver-wire add earlier this season and performed well in that small sample size. Anytime you can get a pitcher with a (27.5% K rate), I’m interested when there’s so little season left. We’ll have to check the matchups. He’ll also have to stay healthy. But Miller is probably the closest candidate we have to having a Cole Ragans-type explosion when it matters most.

Note: It appears Miller is going to work as an opener the rest of the season before being stretched out for next year. I’m still fine with utilizing Miller for strikeouts and ratios, or a spot start in a pinch. Two or three innings from Miller, with his strikeout ability, is still valuable.

Reese Olson, Detroit Tigers

Wow, another Detroit Tigers player. No, I’m not a fan. No, I’m not a homer. But I might have to thank the lowly Tigers for their services if their players help carry me and others to fantasy baseball titles. Before we talk about Reese Olson, I need you to know I’ve never rostered him in any league this season. He’s been completely off my radar, and I’ve even scoffed at Olson being brought up as a potential streamer. But we’re at that point of the season where I can’t deny what I’m seeing. Olson has been excellent over his last four starts and even took a no-hitter into the seventh inning against the White Sox back on September 8. There’s no reason for Olson not to pitch these final few weeks. It looks like he’s lined up for a start against the Dodgers, but maybe that will be a Dodgers team hoping to run the clock out and prepare for the playoffs. Matchups against the A’s and the Guardians at home appear to be Olson’s last two rounds through the rotation. I might have to reconsider my no-Olson streamer policy.

Movin’ On Part 2

Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies

Huh, how could I have a guy who has hit 43 home runs on this list? He’s likely been a huge contributor to your team all season long. He had been red-hot, and I mean red-hot at the plate the first few weeks of September. So why are we moving on with two weeks left? In points leagues, Kyle Schwarber’s only value comes when he hits home runs. Otherwise, he’s racking up -1 every time he strikes out. He’s hitting sub-200 for Pete’s sake. I refuse to believe the hot stretch of six home runs the first 10 days of September will continue, which means I’m projecting a mini-slump for Schwarber to end the year. Similar to Luis Arraez last article, if you aren’t chasing home runs, what is Schwarber going to provide you that no one else can?

Josh Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays

I’m as big a Josh Lowe fan as anyone. He’s been one of the best value selections in high-stakes fantasy leagues, including my NFBC Auction team. Unfortunately, I don’t want to mess with the #Rayslineups. There’s no guarantee Lowe is going to play every day. There’s no guarantee he’s going to hit near the top of the order. Couple that with the fact he’s been relatively average in the second half (I’d argue below average), and I’m looking elsewhere at a deep outfield position.

Masataka Yoshida, Boston Red Sox

This one hurts me as well. Masataka Yoshida, by all standards, has been a success for the Boston Red Sox as a rookie. It appears, however, that he’s hit a rookie wall. I’m not sitting him unless I have better options. But again, we’re dealing with a position (outfield) that’s as deep as any other. Maybe Yoshida puts together one final surge. But I’m looking elsewhere. And to prove it, I’m putting my money where my mouth is and playing Suzuki over Yoshida in my H2H championship matchup.

Note: My team name has to do with the fact I traded away three draft picks for next year. Hey, if you have a chance to win it all, you gotta leave it all on the table.

That’ll do it for this year’s Game Theory series. If you’ve been a loyal reader, I appreciate you giving me this platform and taking this journey with me through September. I hope you found at least one tidbit of information helpful along the way. And if not, let me hear about it @Adam15Young or reach out in Discord and roast me. You only have two weeks left.