2025 NCAA Tournament: March Madness Frauds

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The brackets have been announced and we now spend the next few days agonizing over the various matchups. As usual, Selection Sunday wasn’t without controversy, as West Virginia was left out of the field despite most bracketologists having them in. Perhaps even more surprising was the fact that the North Carolina Tar Heels got in despite having just one Quad 1 win.

Additionally, Louisville was given an 8 seed, which is hard to defend. They were 13th in the AP Poll and over the last decade that spot has been given at least a 5 seed or better. You may think the AP Poll is meaningless, but clearly it was given some merit when you look at past tournament brackets. One of the other talking points has been the fact that Memphis was given a 5 seed when a lot of pundits had them somewhere in the 7-8 range.

As we look over the bracket and prepare ourselves for the chaos Thursday, a few teams stand out to me as vulnerable to a potential upset and some of them are outright volatile. In fact, you might even say they’re “March Madness Frauds.” The topic of this piece is to highlight several teams that have a fraudulent profile and could be looking at an early exit from the tournament altogether.

2025 NCAA Tournament: March Madness Frauds

Texas Longhorns

Texas was one the “First Four Out” line for many bracketologists but ended up getting in and having a play-in game date with the Xavier Musketeers. I have maintained for weeks that if Texas gets into the field that they were a candidate to get blown out by 20-plus points in the play-in round. We have seen a string of questionable teams get into the field recently, only to end up getting blasted in the play-in game. Virginia’s inclusion in last year’s tournament was a head scratcher, and they rewarded the committee’s decision by losing 67-42 to Colorado State. In the 2023 tournament, Nevada got in from the MWC over a few teams that many thought belonged in over them. They went on to lose 98-73 to ASU and had many in the industry saying, “I told you so.” It’s a short sample, but it’s worth noting, and nothing about the Longhorns this year makes me think the result of their game with Xavier will be any different.

Kentucky Wildcats

It may be unfair to refer to the Wildcats as frauds, because they’ve had a great year under first-year head coach Mark Pope. However, the injury bug has bit the team hard, and they’ll be without key guard Jaxson Robinson. Lamont Butler is expected to play, but he has been dealing with myriad injuries and hasn’t been 100% in months. I question how many minutes he can actually give this team in the tournament. They ended up as a 3-seed despite some late-season struggles, but don’t be fooled, their first-round opponent is no cupcake. They’ll be facing a scrappy Troy Trojan squad that just battled its way through a tough Sun Belt tournament. Kentucky has been turnover prone lately as well, which won’t serve them well against Troy, a team that uses their underrated physicality on defense to cause major problems for their opponents. If the Wildcats weren’t dealing with so many key injuries they likely wouldn’t end up on this list but the fact of the matter is they’ll be operating well under 100%, and that won’t do them any favors against the Sun Belt champs.

Purdue Boilermakers

Matt Painter and the Boilermakers have suffered early exits before, none more embarrassing than their loss to 16 seed FDU back in 2023. They got over the hump by making the national title game last year in Zach Edey’s final college season, which was a feel-good story for their program. That’s a distant memory now and they’ve hit a rough patch at an inopportune time. They have lost six of their last nine games and have a first-round date with a very good team in the High Point Panthers. In the past, it was Purdue’s guard play that cost them but this year it’s the lack of a low post presence that could be their ultimate downfall. They have been so bad on defensive that they rank near the bottom of the NCAA in two-point field goal percentage. This isn’t hyperbole either, they are literally ranked 350th in that category. High Point is ranked 15th in offensive two-point field goal percentage which is eye-popping disparity. Combine that with the fact that High Point has a second unit that is better than a lot of programs’ starters and we have a major problem, Houston. Kimani Hamilton, Kezza Giffa and former Kansas transfer Bobby Pettiford could provide the next chapter in Purdue early exits. 

Kansas Jayhawks

Let me first be clear that the Jayhawks are a legendary program and Bill Self is one of the best to ever do it. There is no disputing that whatsoever. Being a blueblood and a respected program comes with a level of expectations that are higher than most teams though. They were the preseason favorite of many, and I have to confess that I thought they were a sure-fire Final Four contender coming into the year. Things didn’t go according to plan though, and they enter the tournament as a 7-seed. That’s simply not good enough for a program of this caliber and their fans would agree. The matchup with Arkansas is a fascinating matchup and the on-court talent edge may lean toward the Hogs. The coaching edge is clearly in favor of Kansas though and anybody that thinks John Calipari is better than Self most likely has rose-colored glasses on. Assuming they advance to the next round, they’ll likely have a ridiculously good St. John’s team waiting for them. Rick Pitino vs Bill self would be a battle of wits between two juggernauts of the sport. St. John’s is on another level though and look primed for a deep tourney run which would mean yet another early exit for the Jayhawks. They won the tourney in 2022 but have lost in the second round in four of the last six years. Again, they are the standard in college basketball and their standards are much higher than a second-round appearance.