Small Ball: Fantasy Baseball Game Theory (Week 23)

Four. More. Weeks.

If you’re atop your fantasy baseball standings, you’re likely counting down the days until September ends. I know I am. Many of you might be locked into the first matchup of your head-to-head points league playoffs. Great. This edition of Game Theory is for anyone still playing for something — no matter what format. We’ve taken this journey from late-March up to this very moment. Every move, trade and start-sit decision has been calculated with one goal in mind – to hoist a fantasy baseball championship on October 1.

If you’re a ’90s kid, you might recall a hit song from Green Day. I can’t help but wonder if lead singer Billie Joe Armstrong was lamenting some of his late-season moves in his fantasy baseball league when he wrote this one:

“As my memory rests, but never forgets what I lost, Wake me up when September Ends.”

Selling high on 39-year-old Barry Bonds back in ’04 must have really been a sore spot for good ‘ol Billie Joe. Anyway, back in August we discussed how to set your playoff roster. This week, we’ll build off that. Let’s make this a September to remember. We sleep in October, as Jon Rothstein (basically) says.

Game Theory Week 23: Closing Out Championships

Human beings respond to incentive. It’s a famous line that stuck with me from Freakonomics. I didn’t realize that many years later, it would apply to fantasy baseball. But it does, like many things in life.

We’ve completed five full months of the MLB season. But those five months are done. Or as Green Day (again) points out, they’ve “come and passed.” There are plenty of players who provided us with tremendous value the majority of those months (think Shohei Ohtani). We kindly thank them for their services. Guys like Ohtani (the pitcher) won’t be carrying us to the finish line, though.

We need to identify players who are motivated these final 30 days. This is a rare case where the “what have you done for me lately” players might be more valuable than name-brand players in a rut. However, it goes further than that. We need to identify teams that are playing for something this final month. We need to identify players who might be gunning for a bigger contract. We need to bench (or outright cut) players who might be at risk of being shut down.

These types of decisions aren’t always black and white. Just because the St. Louis Cardinals have waved the white flag doesn’t mean that we should bench Paul Goldschmidt. Below, I’ll do my best to identify some under-the-radar players I believe can carry us through September and win us a fantasy baseball championship. I’ll also go through some tough decisions that might go against the grain.

Crossing the Finish Line

Kerry Carpenter, Detroit Tigers
Spencer Torkelson, Detroit Tigers

I know, I’m way late on this one. As of August 24 (when I began writing this), Kerry Carpenter was less than 33% rostered in ESPN leagues. Apparently, people in Yahoo were quicker to react (66% rostered). It’s unlikely you had Carpenter before his offensive explosion, but he’s locked into a premier spot in the Detroit lineup and playing fast and loose. He’s in a bit of a power draught now, which often happens after a hot streak. If he’s still out there, scoop him up. Since Detroit isn’t playing for anything, we don’t have to worry about them benching a 25-year-old breakout player during the stretch run. 

The same can be said for the resurgent 23-year-old Spencer Torkelson, who quietly has provided some nice value across the board after a slow start to the season. He won’t be available in most NFBC leagues, but if he’s still lying around on other platforms, he and Carpenter are playing with major incentive and want to carry some momentum into next season.

Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks

Our guy Vlad Sedler listed Brandon Pfaadt in his Trust the Gut series several weeks back. The right-hander is a classic example of a prospect who struggled early and then figured it out (think Grayson Rodriguez). His first stint in the big leagues came following a ton of hype. And it ended with a thud.

Pfaadt went 0-2 with an 8.37 ERA in his first five starts before being sent back down. He briefly returned to the majors on June 29 and was blasted for six earned runs in two innings against the Tampa Bay Rays. Back down he went.

The youngster was brought up one final time out of necessity – with Arizona searching for a serviceable third option in the rotation behind mainstays Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. They might have finally found one in Pfaadt. After returning for his third stint July 22, he started seven games and posted a 3.48 ERA with 39 strikeouts in 41.1 innings against stingy competition (Reds 2x, Mariners, Giants, Dodgers, Padres x2). He struggled Wednesday against the Dodgers, but who doesn’t? 

We don’t often get the chance to nab post-hype sleepers in the same year they are brought up. This might be one of those occasions. The D-backs are in the middle of the wild-card race, so Pfaadt should have plenty of leash. Even if they fall out of the hunt, there’s incentive for the team to get a good look at Pfaadt before 2024. And in case you’re schedule-watching, he has a juicy matchup Tuesday at home against the last-place Rockies.

Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox

Triston Casas is another late-bloomer who is providing plenty of reward for those who were patient. Casas’ recent power surge has put him on the map for AL Rookie of the Year consideration. As of Friday morning, he was rocking a .263 average with 21 home runs and 53 RBIs to go along with an impressive .366 OBP.

He’s a key player with incentive down the stretch, not only for himself, but his team. The Red Sox, while trying to claw their way to a wild-card berth, would earn a Prospect Promotion Incentive draft pick in 2024 if Casas breaks through and wins AL Rookie of the Year. Only a handful of other AL players had the ability to earn their club a PPI pick at the beginning of the season – Anthony Volpe, Hunter Brown, Oscar Colás, Josh Jung, Logan O’Hoppe, Ken Waldichuk and Gunnar Henderson.

Henderson is currently the betting favorite to win AL ROY. But a major surge from Casas that helps lead the Red Sox to the playoffs could easily flip that Casas’ way. This dude isn’t coming out of the lineup anytime soon. Ride him through September.

DJ Stewart, New York Mets

DJ Stewart is an example of a player fighting for his career. Stewart failed to impress in five seasons with the Baltimore Orioles from 2018-22 despite being a first-round pick. His “best” season came in 2021 when he played in 100 games and hit .204 with 12 home runs and 33 RBIs. The way things were going, the Google algorithm was more likely to spit out disc jockeys in 2023 than DJ Stewart, the baseball player.

No one had Stewart on their bingo card to lead the Mets in several offensive categories down the stretch. But the lefty is quietly mashing in the Big Apple (8 HR in his last 13 games!) and should continue to have steady air time – I mean, playing time – for the Metropolitans. He might not stick with them next season, but he could land a job elsewhere if he continues to raise eyebrows. And if any player needs one final opportunity to make an impression, it’s the soon-to-be 30-year-old Demetrius Jerome (Don’t Call Me DJ) Stewart.

Note: You know a guy is scorching hot when Aroldis Chapman made a business decision to hit Stewart with the bases loaded on Wednesday to give the Mets a walk-off win. If he pitched to Stewart, it surely would have resulted in a grand slam and an even more bloated ERA.

Another note: Don’t be surprised if Stewart cools down, just like Kerry Carpenter, before reigniting for one last hot streak in late-September. No one can stay this hot for this long… Right? …

Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals

I don’t need to spend much time on this one. I picked up Cole Ragans a few weeks ago for $3, but no one expected this kind of breakout. 

If you were lucky enough to snag Ragans before his insane post-Rangers stretch (3-1, 1.73 ERA, 56 K in 41.2 innings), he’s matchup proof this final month.

Movin’ On

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Cincinnati Reds

This one hurts, as someone who bid a reasonable amount of FAAB dollars on Christian Encarnacion-Strand. I’ll preface this by saying you’re still starting him in NFBC leagues and 15-teamers. But in points leagues and other formats, he’s a guy I’m looking to sit if I have enough depth.

The Reds are locked into the playoff race, but CES and his 31% K rate (woof) isn’t doing us any favors, especially in leagues that penalize points for strikeouts. I dropped CES for Jake Burger in my home league playoffs. Encarnacion-Strand is a player I’ll be very interested in next season. Just not this September.

Luis Arraez, Miami Marlins

This one comes with a caveat. If you’re trying to make up ground or hold a lead in the AVG category, then obviously you’re starting Luis Arraez. If there isn’t much wiggle room in that specific category, what is Arraez doing in your lineup? He’s not going to give you any power. He’s not driving in runs. He’s not even scoring many runs. It feels odd to bench a player who’s hitting .349, but we’re on the last leg of the 2023 season. What has he done for you lately?

Carlos Rodón, New York Yankees

Carlos Rodón came off the injured list and fired a decent start against the Nationals back on August 22. He then recorded a so-so outing against the Rays on August 27.

The Yankees are all but out of the playoff race (I can’t believe I’m writing that). What motivation could they possibly have to run Rodón into the ground for 3-4 more starts in September? The oft-injured lefty signed a six-year, $162 million contract this offseason. Can you imagine if Rodón tweaks his arm again in a meaningless Sept. 21 start at home versus Toronto? Actually, I can. I don’t want any part of Rodón in a crucial spot late in the fantasy season.

Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers

Speaking of Yankees, we’ve been yanked around multiple times by the Rangers these past few weeks regarding Nathan Eovaldi. The righty has put together a career year but hasn’t pitched in well over a month. A possible return was teased, only for it to be pushed back again. I’m not sure what Eovaldi will look like once he’s back. Will he have any limitations? Will the Rangers play it safe if they’re locked into the playoffs? Thanks for your service, Nathan. You helped get us to September. But I’m going to trust someone else to push me into October.

As always, hit me up on Twitter @Adam15Young and reach out in Discord with more questions. Let’s wake up to a fantasy title when September ends.