Small Ball: H2H Fantasy Baseball Draft Burning Questions

I’ve been getting an influx of DMs from FTN subscribers lately. And that’s a good thing. It means the fantasy baseball season is almost here.

I know, the Dodgers and Cubs began with the Tokyo series, but you know what I mean. The true start of the fantasy baseball season is in a week, on March 27. Most people have already drafted. Maybe you haven’t. Other than the FSGA team I co-manage with our own Vlad Sedler, I still have about 5-6 drafts to complete in the next week.

This week’s version of Small Ball will be a Q&A format, in honor of the questions I’ve received from others ahead of their drafts. My aim is to address many of the common issues that will face drafters prior to first pitch. To make this even more relevant, I’ll touch on some issues that may arise for teams that have already drafted. 

Remember, I’m going to be focusing on head-to-head and points leagues this season. It’s a corner of the industry that I believe is still under-analyzed in our space. But don’t stop reading if you play in NFBC leagues (I do too). Many of these questions and answers are still actionable regardless of your league format.

Small Ball Q&A

How to Approach Head-to-Head Category Leagues vs. H2H Points Leagues?

Luckily, I feel qualified to answer this question. I play in one of each. While the main goal is the same — consistently score as many points/accrue as many categories as possible — there are approaches in H2H categories that can be more liberal than H2H points leagues.

Regardless of format, I’m a big advocate for the hitter-extreme strategy. While having an elite pitching staff has value, there are so many landmines to avoid, whether it’s injury, a down season or difficult matchups at inopportune times. Even the best pitchers, let’s say Tarik Skubal, will start just one time each week for your fantasy team. Every so often, you’ll end up with a two-step week, but it’s universally accepted that you’re receiving one start per pitcher in a weekly matchup.

It’s why I prefer to load up my lineup with consistent hitters across virtually all the positions. The more set-it-and-forget-it options you have in your batting order, the easier it will be to manage your team – and your own stress levels. With a hitter-extreme strategy, I aim to eliminate the need to “platoon” hitters on a weekly basis through FAAB acquisitions. I aim to craft a lineup that will outscore my opponents, or accrue more categories than my opponents, without too much tinkering on my end.

This allows me to put forth maximum effort on the pitching front. And in H2H category leagues, there are ways to manipulate your matchups based on pitcher volume in several categories. If you’re trailing by 10 strikeouts with two days left in your matchup, you can always stream pitchers in order to “chase down” your opponent. You can do the same thing with wins. Although it isn’t ideal to have a completely fluid starting rotation, there are ways to flip categories at the end of your matchup utilizing the waiver wire in ways you can’t with your hitters. So if you play in H2H weekly category leagues, prioritize hitting like never before.

This doesn’t mean we should do the opposite in H2H points leagues. Although I prefer the hitter-heavy strategy, you can make it work with an elite pitching staff that simply outscores your opponent on a weekly basis without much effort. In H2H points leagues, it makes more sense to build as balanced a roster as possible based on pure draft value. Utilize a set of projections you trust and take the players who are going to consistently provide you the highest floor/ceiling combo at each position.

What If My Draft Goes Completely Sideways?

This has happened to all of us at least once. You think you know your leaguemates. You’ve studied their tendencies. Maybe you even created a fake Twitter account to bait them into showing their hand on a certain player/position. Really, I’ve seen people do that. 

Regardless, you might expect the draft to go a certain way. You’ve planned for that and crafted what you feel is a perfect strategy. Then all of a sudden Joe Ryan goes No. 3 overall when you had him slotted as a Round 4-5 target. Someone read one of my preseason articles and sniped you on Vinnie Pasquantino when you thought he’d drop another few rounds. Suddenly, all the players you felt would be available to draft are gone. How do we shake that off? Not everyone has the mental fortitude to do that.

Most people will panic. And when they panic, they start reaching. 

All my players keep getting picked. I don’t want Player A to be the next one I lose. Let me take him 14 picks ahead of ADP.

Massive mistake. Things will start to snowball on you, and you’ll end up with a sub-optimal squad. The best thing to do when things go completely sideways is to zig when others zag. It’s a cliche phrase, but it will work more often than not if you execute it properly.

Here’s a quick example from one of my H2H points leagues. This league has existed for over a decade, and after many years, managers began to recognize that an elite pitching staff gave you a slight edge over the field – especially in the playoffs with how our league was structured. Because of that, our draft went something like this:

• Pitcher
• Pitcher
• Pitcher
• Pitcher
• Pitcher
• Elite Hitter
• Pitcher
• Pitcher
• Elite Hitter
• Pitcher
• Pitcher
• Pitcher
• Pitcher
• Pitcher

Perhaps this is a slight exaggeration, but everyone went pitching. And as more pitchers flew off the board, people panicked and took the next-highest pitcher on the board. Since I hovered near the back of the first round, I decided to do the opposite. I went hitters with my first 4-5 picks. That’s where tiers can help you during the draft process. The difference between Hitter 2 and Hitter 3 on the board is pretty negligible. The difference between Pitcher 2 and Pitcher 15 is pretty massive in comparison. Why panic and continue the run on pitching when you could do the exact opposite and craft the best lineup in your league?

Well what about pitching? How can you survive when everyone else took the top pitchers? It’s pretty simple actually. Once the massive run on pitching finally ended, all my leaguemates had the same conundrum. They looked at their rosters and said, “Well, now I need a bunch of hitters.”

While some might panic with zero pitchers on their roster through a chunk of rounds, a shrewd manager will recognize that the middle tier of pitching will go virtually untouched from that point forward. And that’s exactly what happened. While everyone started filling out their lineup, I ended up drafting a handful of pitchers in the 30-40 range all in a row. In the end, I drafted the most elite lineup in my league and nailed enough mid-tier pitchers to have a respectable staff. A few waiver wire pickups and trades later, and suddenly my staff became above-average-to-good.

An above-average staff plus the top lineup in the league? It ended up winning the title. Instead of panicking and following the herd during the draft, zagging while others zigged (or whatever you want to call it) worked out. It won’t always work to perfection, but you’ll give yourself a better chance to succeed if your draft doesn’t go according to plan.

What if I Don’t Like My Team After the Draft?

This question is inspired by some of the DMs I’ve received. Quite often, people will look at draft grades on their platform and see that their draft received a D+. Then they’ll do what we talked about in the last segment – panic. 

I’ve received trade proposal questions with screenshots. I’ve heard about managers dropping a player they drafted for someone who’s had a hot spring and is on the waiver wire. Back when I was a real rookie in the industry, I remember sending screenshots to other analysts asking what they thought of my draft, all because I felt insecure with my team a day later. It’s human nature, and I get it. There’s just no reason to overreact to your draft. Some of the best teams I’ve ever had got side-eye from me 24-48 hours later. Other drafts I was practically giddy about, and they turned out to be mediocre contenders. The worst thing you can do is start making knee-jerk reactions to your own team before we get any real data from the regular season. We need to recognize that there will be thousands of moves and transactions throughout the year that will have a much bigger impact on your team than anything you can do right now, just a few days away from the regular season.

How Should I Change My Draft Approach in Keeper Leagues?

Here’s one we rarely talk about in the fantasy baseball industry. Yet there are a handful of people (myself included) who play in these leagues. It’s a massive edge to start your team with a group of elite players. And it can change the way you approach your draft. Let’s say your league allows you to keep three players each at hitter/pitcher. Let’s also assume, for now, that there’s no draft-capital cost associated with keeping those players.

Perhaps your roster looks like this pre-draft:

C: Yainer Diaz
1B
2B: Ketel Marte
3B
SS: Xavier Edwards
OF
OF
OF
Util

SP
SP
SP
SP
SP
RP: Devin Williams
RP
RP

Whether it’s a points league or a category league, this is an excellent start to the year and will make your draft a heck of a lot easier. Catcher, second base and shortstop are relatively shallow positions. With the roster above, you don’t need to address those positions early, nor will you have to “reach” or “settle” for a less-than-ideal asset at the end of the draft. You also have started with an elite closer. In this example, your draft strategy would not need to include a hitter-heavy approach. You can cross off players at catcher, second base and shortstop, and you can also wait a fairly long time before drafting a reliever. This might be a case where you utilize a pitcher-heavy draft strategy. Go with three straight SPs if the prices are right. If the value simply isn’t there, go grab an elite 1B and check another item off the list for future rounds. 

The best thing to do is to write down all the other players who are kept in your league and study everyone else’s roster. If you know that 60% of the league kept three starting pitchers apiece, you can draw a pair of conclusions.

1. The starting pitcher value might not be there early, and therefore you should pivot away from a pitcher-heavy draft strategy as outlined above.
2. Those teams will be unlikely to draft SPs early, meaning they might start hammering away at hitting, opening up value for you elsewhere.

As long as you know your own roster needs, and can combine that information with the needs of your opponent, it will be pretty obvious how to proceed with the draft once it begins. Always be prepared.

What to Do If My Team Actually Sucks

Let’s finish off this exercise with a bit of a facetious example. With the amount of resources we have here at FTN, I find it highly unlikely that your team flat-out “sucks” right now.

However, not everyone drafted this past week. Perhaps you drafted a team back in January that looked great on paper. Then injuries hit. Maybe you have massive holes in your lineup now that were outside of your control on draft day. I know I’m beating a dead horse here, but just don’t panic. I’ve said this in other articles in the past. In-season management is a massive, massive part of the puzzle in fantasy baseball. The season is close to six months long. A few injuries at the beginning of the season aren’t going to cripple your team. 

If you play in a season-long category league, or a rotisserie league, being in last place in runs scored after one month of the season isn’t a death sentence. I’ve seen teams go from worst to first in a 30-40 day span. Sometimes less. During the course of a six-month season, a 30-40 day period is only about 16-20% of the whole. It doesn’t matter what your team looks like in March. Even a poorly drafted team can find a remedy with some clever in-season moves, FAAB acquisitions and even trades if your league allows it. 

Like I said, I’ve received DMs and questions from people that are unhappy with their team. They’ll ask if that team can still contend. I play along most of the time, but the true answer is always “I don’t know.” Let’s see what happens during the season. The best managers will improve their team incrementally over time. The best managers will find the edges on a weekly basis to give them the best chance to win a matchup. The best managers don’t panic. The best managers will keep a level head and use psychology to their advantage.

These are all topics I’ve touched on in the past. They are tried-and-true methods that will result in success more often than not. So no, your team doesn’t suck. There’s still a long way to go.