Fantasy Football Winners and Losers of Free Agency

The players who changed teams over the last week (and a bit, counting the trades and pre-league year deals) get the main headlines and analysis in the wake of the start of free agency. Winners, losers rising, falling, the standard stuff applies. Our own Tyler Orginski covered it last week in his risers and fallers of the early days of free agency.

But all the moves (or non-moves) of free agency matter to the players who didn’t change teams as well. Which situations improved (or didn’t) based on who teams added, lost, or just ignored? Below, we’re look at the winners and losers of free agency among players who are still on the same teams they were on a month ago.

Fantasy Football Winners of Free Agency Among Those Who Didn’t Change Teams

Quarterback

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

“Hey guys, we gave Caleb a bunch of good receivers for his rookie season but a piece of one-ply toilet paper as an offensive line, and it didn’t go very well. Think we should build that up a bit?”

“Oooh, yeah, good call, let’s trade for Jonah Jackson and Joe Thuney and sign the best center on the market, Drew Dalman. And hey, we might even take more OL help in the draft. Sound good?”

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

We knew Mayfield would be back in Tampa for 2025, and we knew Mike Evans would be there as well. But there was plenty of question about Chris Godwin as he headed into free agency and off of a season-ending injury in 2024. But Godwin is back, and the reports that teams (especially the Patriots) were clamoring for him and willing to overpay tells us there aren’t many concerns about his health. Mayfield has the gang back together.

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

As of Sunday night, we know Tee Higgins is sticking around. The Bengals are keeping their big offensive trio together, and it seems like Trey Hendrickson may be the odd man out as a result. This is a team that will need to win 56-55 all year.

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

Cooper Kupp looked at least borderline washed last year. Davante Adams still looked excellent. And he’s more of a complement to Puka Nacua’s skillset than Kupp’s relative redundancy. If this is Stafford’s last hurrah, it’s set up well for him.

Running Back

Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers

Jordan Mason and Elijah Mitchell both left (one traded, one a free agent). Deebo Samuel Sr., who isn’t a running back but occasionally cosplayed as one, left as well. The 49ers have pared down in anticipation of having to pay Brock Purdy, and McCaffrey could easily reap the rewards as the one who has to get a major touch load in 2025. In short…

Wide Receiver

Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars

Christian Kirk and Evan Engram combined for 111 targets in 17 games last year, roughly 6.5 per game. They are now in, respectively, Houston and Denver, and the only relevant replacement is Dyami Brown, who has 102 targets … in a four-year, 63-game career. The Jaguars are likely to add at least one more receiving option this offseason, but until they do, Thomas needs to be projected for approximately four bajillion targets.

Tight End

Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders

Bowers set several records as a rookie — most receptions by a rookie at any position (112), most receiving yards by a rookie tight end (1,194), most receptions by a Raider (still 112, that didn’t change in that last line or so). And that was with Gardner Minshew II, Aidan O’Connell and Desmond Ridder. Imagine what he might do with a competent quarterback. Like, oh, I don’t know, Geno Smith. Oh hey, would you look at that.

Fantasy Football Losers of Free Agency Among Those Who Didn’t Change Teams

Quarterback

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

I don’t care what the Colts are saying. They want Anthony Richardson to win the QB battle between him and Daniel Jones. Richardson winning the starting job would mean there’s still hope for this iteration of the Colts. Jones winning would mean another year of being the last team on the “In the Hunt” playoff graphic until, like, Week 16, and then starting over next offseason, likely with a new head coach and/or GM. They want it to be Richardson.

That said, Jones is the first guy brought in to battle Richardson who (a) plays at least a marginally similar style to Richardson, and (b) could realistically be a replacement. Richardson is the favorite. But, to use NCAA Tournament parlance, this is a 5/12 matchup, not a 1/16 one.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Joe Thuney was the Chiefs’ best left tackle for most of 2024, which is a problem, both because he’s now on the Bears and because he’s, well, a guard. The line was the team’s biggest weakness last year, and the biggest move there so far has been losing Thuney and adding Jaylon Moore, who has never been a full-time starter. Add in the potential for suspensions for Rashee Rice and (less likely, but not impossible) Xavier Worthy and age for Travis Kelce, and with the injured-for-much-of-2024 Marquise Brown the only receiver signing, and the Chiefs appear to be leaning far too hard on the “Mahomes is great, he’ll carry us” strategy.

Running Back

Chuba Hubbard/Jonathon Brooks, Carolina Panthers

The Panthers had to add another back this offseason. Brooks won’t be back in 2025 until late in the season, if at all, after suffering a second torn ACL. But Rico Dowdle is better than a typical backup, good enough that he’ll command his own share of touches. Even if that is (and it will be) less work than he got in Dallas last year, it will be enough to hold 2024 breakout Hubbard in check, and perhaps buy the team an entire redshirt year for Brooks.

Austin Ekeler, Washington Commanders

Ekeler wasn’t a big receiving threat in his first year in Washington. He only had one game over 5 targets, two over 4. It was his first season with no receiving touchdowns. But with Brian Robinson Jr. still around, “receiving back” is the primary skill Ekeler brings to the table. And he should still be that in 2025, but the arrival of Deebo Samuel Sr. gives Jayden Daniels another very capable dumpoff/screen option, and that kind of boxes Ekeler in from both directions.

Ray Davis, Buffalo Bills

It’s increasingly looking like the Bills are going to use James Cook in 2025 and then let him enter free agency. And while it’s not a guarantee, that’s a heck of a recipe for a team to say “We don’t need to save his legs for the future, it ain’t our future,” and run him into the ground. Add in the re-signing of Ty Johnson, and 2024 rookie Davis might not have a chance to pop in 2025.

Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs

If the Chiefs believed Pacheco would be back to full strength in 2025 after coming back slowly from injury last year, maybe they bring in Elijah Mitchell anyway as a No. 2 and otherwise stand pat. But bringing in Mitchell and re-signing Kareem Hunt screams that the team isn’t convinced Pacheco is the starter he looked like, especially considering he entered the NFL with just a seventh-round pedigree.

Wide Receiver

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks

Losing target competition can be good, and DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett were target competition. But Sam Darnold’s best-case scenario is about what Geno Smith has been the last few years, and the floor is so much lower, especially considering the Seahawks’ … less-than-ideal offensive line. And then the team brought in Cooper Kupp, who might be done, but if he isn’t, he does a lot of the same stuff as Smith-Njigba. Moving JSN to the slot in 2024 helped him break out. Will forcing him back outside more often undo that development?

Garrett Wilson, New York Jets

Davante Adams leaving means Wilson will be the WR1 in New York without question. That’s great. But Justin Fields being his quarterback almost certainly means a huge reduction in pass attempts. The Jets attempted 607 passes last year, fifth most. In Fields’ four years, the highest attempts-per-game average he’s put up is 28.5, which works out to just under 484 pass attempts per season, a number that would have only beaten out the Packers, Ravens and Eagles last year. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where a Fields-led Jets team throws the ball even 550 times. As our Jeff Ratcliffe noted, Wilson could command a massive target share — 30% or higher — and still not be within 30 targets of the league leader.

Tight End

Isaiah Likely, Baltimore Ravens

There’s still a chance Mark Andrews could be traded before the season (even before the draft). But there were initial rumors he could be a salary-cap casualty this offseason, and that would have had to happen by this past weekend, when the Ravens allowed his $4 million 2025 roster to be picked up. Likely without Andrews would be a clear-cut TE1 in fantasy. Assuming Andrews sticks around? Likely is just a guy. A guy with upside, but a guy.

To Be Determined

There are some situations here that aren’t winners or losers … yet. But they could be. We just don’t know.

Minnesota Vikings … All of Them

Is J.J. McCarthy ready to be an NFL quarterback? Could Aaron Rodgers come to town? Is T.J. Hockenson ready for the year after the year after his injury? Is Aaron Jones Sr. still the bell cow, or will new arrival Jordan Mason command a healthy share? Between the possibility McCarthy is far worse (or far better) than Darnold and the chances Rodgers winds up in Minnesota, we just can’t say yet.

George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

DK Metcalf arriving in Pittsburgh could kill Pickens’ target upside … or it could command attention from opponents’ top defenders and leave Pickens to battle lesser corners. The quarterback in Pittsburgh could be Aaron Rodgers … or it could be Mason Rudolph. Heck, Pickens could stay in Pittsburgh … or the team could try to get rid of the headache. Even this far into the offseason, Pickens’ outlook seems like a Choose Your Own Adventure book with a hundred different outcomes.       

Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles

Guys like Harrison Bryant and Kylen Granson aren’t ready-made Dallas Goedert replacements. But they are alternatives, and they indicate there’s fire to the smoke that the Eagles are rumored to be dealing Goedert. There’s a healthy amount of “TBD” here, but Goedert could find himself elsewhere. That could be good — just about any other team will pass the ball more than the Eagles, and if a team is trading for him its because he’s wanted — or bad — not many offenses are as productive as Philadelphia’s, so the TD options could shrink.