Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
I am a longtime player and no-time winner of a friend’s annual NFL Survivor League. And thanks to that unimpeachable resume, FTN asked me to write a Survivor/Eliminator League advice column this week and probably never again. What follows are my 100% guaranteed winner picks for Week 1.
Baltimore Ravens
-10 vs. Texans
If I learned anything this preseason, it’s that former Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman is Futurama‘s Malfunctioning Eddie personified — but with Flexo’s goatee — and that rookie Zay Flowers is the best wide receiver in Ravens history. Of course, that latter fact is a little less impressive when you actually review their top five:
- Zay Flowers
- A 35-year-old Steve Smith
- A 35-year-old Derrick Mason
- A post-facial-reconstruction Anquan Boldin
- Marlon Brown
Go watch the highlights, Gen Zers.
Whatever. What’s important is that, for Lamar Jackson to throw for 6,000 yards this season, he needs to hang at least 400 on the hapless Texans this week. DeMeco Ryans is a more promising team leader than a former chaplain or a couple of one-and-done head coaches the NFL definitely didn’t instruct owner Janice McNair to hire to improve the optics of the league’s diversity hiring practices. But rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud is just six wins away from the modern Ohio State alumni NFL wins record. It may take a minute for Ryans to turn this ship around. I trust the Ravens this week even starting Rock Ya-Sin and street free agent Ronald Darby at corner, the latter whom the team presumably signed only after Nnamdi Asomugha turned them down. Who in their right mind would play football if they were married to Scandal‘s Kerry Washington?
Atlanta Falcons
-3.5 vs. Panthers
Continuing the theme of victimizing rookie quarterbacks, Falcons head coach Arthur Smith faces a real conundrum this week. He could either crush my Panthers fan dreams and probably stupid preseason fantasy takes by having Bijan Robinson break Adrian Peterson‘s rookie record of 296 rushing yards in a game. Or he could crush every other fantasy player’s dreams by benching Robinson for fifth-round sophomore Tyler Allgeier in the red zone. Or actually throwing passes to Kyle Pitts after no one drafted him this year. I can’t say whose tears Smith would prefer to taste this week. But I am confident the Falcons can handle the Panthers at home in Atlanta.
The Falcons appeared to tread water with their second consecutive 7-10 season in 2022. But their jump from a -29.4% to a -2.9% DVOA was the third highest by a team that maintained the same win-loss record in the history of the metric. That bodes well for a better record in 2023. And if the Falcons can keep new quarterback starter Desmond Ridder vertical, that will be much better than the Panthers managed with their concerningly tiny No. 1 rookie draft pick Bryce Young this preseason.
Seattle Seahawks
-5 vs. Rams
With star receiver Cooper Kupp sidelined with a lingering hamstring injury, the Rams are left with an uninspiring wide receiver room of:
- Van Jefferson
- Ben Skowronek
- Demarcus Robinson
- D’Marcus Williums
- Tutu Atwell
- Tyroil Smoochie-Wallace
- Puka Nacua
Two of those names are from Key and Peele‘s East/West Collegiate Bowl sketch, but you don’t know which ones, do you?
Geno Smith surprised everyone but Russell Wilson‘s former teammates with his success in 2022, his first year as a starter in almost a decade. But it wasn’t a fluke. Smith’s 82.5% adjusted accuracy percentage led regular quarterbacks per Reception Perception. And after the Seahawks drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round this offseason, Smith may have the best wide receiver group in football.
My only concern with this pick had been the NFC West’s traditional rock-paper-scissors tendencies. The 49ers are 11-4 versus the Rams since 2016. The Seahawks were 10-2 versus the 49ers from 2016 to 2021. And the Rams were 8-4 versus the Seahawks from 2016 to 2021.
But the 49ers beat the Seahawks three times in 2022, and the Seahawks beat the Rams twice. Clearly the Seahawks are evolving. And I think it’s clear that last year’s wins over their nemesis Rams were the football equivalent of Blastoise learning Ice Beam to cover his major type weakness.
Washington Commanders
-7 vs. Cardinals
If you are the type who would be happy with either ultimate bragging rights or not having to play Survivor after Week 1, then this is the pick for you. The Commanders secured their sixth straight non-winning season in 2023 thanks to a Week 13 tie with the Giants. But this pick isn’t about them. It’s about their opponent. I can’t say the Cardinals are tanking. But they did trade a fifth-round pick for quarterback Joshua Dobbs two weeks ago and subsequently name him their Week 1 starter. Dobbs faces a tall order to learn the Cardinals playbook, find chemistry with his new receivers, and win on the road in Washington this weekend. But silver lining, Dobbs may be too new to Arizona to adjust to the Pacific time zone and fall victim to the curse of the west coast team traveling east.
Arizona Cardinals
+7 at Commanders
The Cardinals may want to lose this season. But like the opponent in South Park‘s little league episode, the Commanders are well-practiced at losing. I will always love Ron Rivera for the Panthers’ 2015 Super Bowl run, but I think he still has a head coaching job for two reasons. One, he went for a couple of fourth downs in 2014. And two, former Commanders owner Daniel Snyder needed an adult in the room. Rivera is the 2020s version of Jeff Fisher, the longtime Titans coach infamous for his 7-9 and 8-8 records and who once “earned” a $16 million extension because he helped carry a few boxes when the Rams moved from St. Louis to Los Angeles.
Sam Howell may have more than two weeks of experience with his current team. But he is a fifth-round draft pick with one start and 19 pass attempts to his professional credit. And if star receiver Terry McLaurin cannot play through his turf toe injury, then the 184-pound Jahan Dotson may have to beat the Cardinals by himself. He probably can. But if you feel inspired by the spirit of Riverboat Ron, you should pick the Cardinals to win this week. And if you win that bet and happen to work for FTN, you can even scream “You Like That!!” like Kirk Cousins at Mike Randle for ranking Howell fifth among quarterbacks in his weekly fantasy rankings.
Scott’s Pick
Baltimore Ravens
Scott’s Record: 0-0
