WR/CB matchups for fantasy football

Fantasy football is all about the matchups, especially when it comes to WR vs. CB. Remember when fantasy matchup analysis used to be “Team A gives up the most fantasy points to wide receivers”? Well, we’ve moved from analog to digital and now look at matchups on an individual level.

Each week, I dig through the FTN Data to identify the actual coverage tendencies for all 32 NFL teams and compile this information in the WR/CB Matchups Tool. The information is then distilled down to give you the biggest upgrades and downgrades this week.

Before we get into this week’s information, we should note a few things about shadow coverage. For starters, shadow coverage is relatively rare in the NFL. In fact, so teams don’t use it at all and instead just let their corners play their sides. We track all shadow situations in our Shadow Index.

A shadow situation occurs when a corner travels with a wide receiver around the formation. Shadows can occur for an entire game or only part of the contest. A shadow situation does not mean the corner is on the receiver 100% of the time. This isn’t backyard football. Receivers move around and occasionally will avoid the shadow. Also, a shadow situation is not always a bad thing for receivers. If the corner is not particular good, the receiver could actually benefit from the shadow.

Matchup upgrades

Davante Adams vs. Marshon Lattimore (shadow)

Marshon Lattimore didn’t shadow very frequently last season, but he’s a good bet to travel with Davante Adams in the opener. And as the matchup indicates, that isn’t a bad thing for Adams. Following a breakout rookie campaign in 2017, Lattimore has regressed toward mediocrity over the last two seasons. Last year, he allowed a whopping eight touchdowns in his coverage. Adams picks right up where he left off last season.

A.J. Brown and Julio Jones vs. Arizona

The Tennessee duo is set up for success in Week 1 against an extremely suspect Cardinals secondary. Arizona rolls into battle this season with Robert Alford, who hasn’t played a snap since 2018, and rookie Marco Wilson on the outside. They’re going to have their hands full with these two big-bodied Titans receivers.

Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen vs. Cincinnati

With William Jackson now in Washington, the Bengals enter 2021 with Chidobe Awuzie and Eli Apple on the outside. Even the mention of Awuzie as a matchup should have you foaming at the mouth. The veteran corner allowed a hefty 15.8 yards per catch in his coverage last season. Apple barely played last season, but when we last saw him in a fulltime role, he surrendered 14.4 yards per catch for the Saints in 2019.

D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson and Terrace Marshall vs. NY Jets

It’s no secret that the Jets have a lot of work to do in their secondary, so this one sets up with for the Panthers’ passing game in Sam Darnold’s revenge game. The Jets projected starters are Isaiah Dunn, Javelin Guidry and Bruce Hall. I could bore you with stats, but I think just reading those names is more than enough to prove my point. D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson are set up for big days and Terrace Marshall makes for an interesting deeper option.

Other matchup upgrades: The Philadelphia passing should get off to a good start to the season against the suspect Atlanta secondary. DeVonta Smith is positioned well for a big game. … Two of the league’s worst secondaries will face each other in the Houston/Jacksonville contest, which means upgrades across the board for Brandin Cooks, Marvin Jones, D.J. Chark and Laviska Shenault. … Jeffrey Okudah and Armani Oruwariye struggled mightily last season, which means good things for Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. … While the outside matchups are tough for the New England wideouts, Jakobi Meyers gets an upgrade out of the slot where he’ll see Justin Coleman. Last season, Coleman allowed a massive 84% of his targets to be caught.

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Matchup downgrades

Allen Robinson vs. Jalen Ramsey (possible shadow)

While we can’t necessarily guarantee a shadow here, the matchup is bad for Allen Robinson any way you slice it. Jalen Ramsey is one of the league’s marquee names at the position and is coming off a 2020 season where he allowed a stingy 9.9 yards per catch and 53% catch rate. But the Rams also have Darious Williams on the other side. Williams broke out last season, allowing just 49% of his targets to be caught.

Marquez Callaway vs. Jaire Alexander (possible shadow)

Yes, Marquez Callaway is in a prime spot to breakout as the de facto No. 1 receiver in New Orleans with Michael Thomas on the shelf until at least Week 7. However, this is a brutal draw for him in Week 1 with a potential shadow looming from Jaire Alexander. Arguably the league’s best corner last year, Alexander blanketed opposing wideouts and held them to just 9.6 yards per catch. This isn’t the week to lean on Callaway.

Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy vs. NY Giants

James Bradberry emerged as one of the league’s better cover men last year for the Giants, allowing a miserly 56% of his targets to be caught with 15 pass breakups and three picks on the year. The Giants also added Adoree’ Jackson in the offseason, making this one of the better units on paper entering the season. Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy also have a bit of a cap on their upside with Teddy Bridgewater under center.

Other matchup downgrades: We still don’t know if Kenny Golladay is going to play, but he gets a downgrade if he does manage to suit up. Denver’s secondary is impressive and is arguably the deepest group in the league. … Tyrell Williams is the clear top receiver in Detroit, which means he’s a good bet to see a shadow from Jason Verrett. The 49ers corner managed to stay healthy last season and allowed just 8.9 yards per catch in his coverage. … It’s a rough open to the season for Henry Ruggs, as he’ll face the vaunted Baltimore secondary. Ruggs offers major upside in 2021, but he’s a fade this week.