NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
Tuesday presents us with a rather tame six-game NBA DFS slate that has a fraction of the injury news Monday had. Instead, we only have one game with an implied total under 220 points, meaning we should see a whole lot of offense on the slate.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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Thunder at Celtics preview
BOS -10.5, total: 215.5
Injury news broke early for the Celtics, as Jayson Tatum (ankle) and Kemba Walker (rest) were ruled out for this game Monday night, leaving Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart to lead the charge on offense against the tanking Thunder. With the pair off the court this season, Brown holds a team-high 37.7% usage rate while averaging 1.34 DKP/min. Considering the matchup, price ($8,400), and vacated usage, he’s one of the top overall plays on the slate. Smart comes in rather underpriced for the situation ($6,600) and carries a legitimate 50-DK-point ceiling. Evan Fournier ($5,000) is also cheap, and we’ve seen his ability to take charge on offense in Orlando, but he’s still the second or third option here, making him hard to trust in anything more than deep-field tournaments.
If looking for value on the Celtics, Payton Pritchard will likely be the popular option, as he should start at point guard with Walker out and Jeff Teague no longer on the team. While he’s an elite play that’s immune to a blowout, Jabari Parker makes for an interesting GPP pivot. HIs 35.5% usage rate in 10.7 minutes without Walker and Tatum on the floor isn’t a large enough sample size to rely on, but he’s seen at least 12 minutes in every game since joining the team. Even if he doesn’t join the starting lineup, he should see at least 20 minutes of action. Given his history of being an elite per-minute producer and usage hog, he certainly has a heap of upside.
The Thunder have been both a pain to watch and a pain to attempt to trust in DFS during their tank-a-thon and that should remain the same Tuesday. Because of this, the only two Thunder players that have a ceiling I’m interested in are Darius Bazley and Luguentz Dort. Bazley has averaged 20.4 points and 7.4 rebounds per game over his last five games, making him a fine mid-tier option at $6,300. Dort has been the catalyst on offense when active, taking 18.6 shots per game over his last five en route to 26.0 points per game.
Bucks at Hornets preview
MIL -9, total: 222.5
Both these teams come in needing to win, as the Bucks are trying to climb up into the second seed in the East while the Hornets are in the thick of the play-in tournament. With the Hornets taking the first two games on the series, the Bucks have the chance to salvage one of them here with Giannis Antetokounmpo back in the lineup. He’s strung together three performances of at least 58 DraftKings points in a row and for under $11,000, it’s hard to ignore him at the top of this slate. If fading Giannis, you can look to Jrue Holiday or Khris Middleton if you’re pressing for Bucks’ exposure, as both are a bit too cheap under $8,000 on DraftKings.
Outside of those three, however, it’s hard to trust the ancillary pieces here with a healthy rotation. If you want to play the game-script game and envision a blowout, Bobby Portis makes sense at $5,700, but you’re running a rather big risk if this game stays close given his heightened price.
The Hornets will remain without LaMelo Ball but could potentially get back Malik Monk, who has missed 13 games with an ankle issue. While he would certainly be limited, his presence off the bench would knock a few extra minutes from Jalen McDaniels and Devonte' Graham. Regardless of how that news shakes out, I have an interest in all three of Terry Rozier, Miles Bridges and P.J. Washington here. Rozier has topped 40 DraftKings points three times over his last five games, with two of them going for 50-plus, making him a bargain at $7,700.
Bridges and Washington should benefit from the Bucks’ ability to run small, as they should shift down to the four and five more often. Both have 35 minutes in their arsenal and a ton of offensive upside, especially if this game stays close.
Blazers at Pacers preview
POR -5, total: 234
Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner have been ruled out for the Pacers, meaning yet another game of attacking them on the defensive end. Though, that has much more to do with Turner’s absence than it does Sabonis’, as the latter could be considered a liability on that end of the court. Their absences should continue to open up minutes for Oshea Brissett, Doug McDermott and JaKarr Sampson, especially if Goga Bitadze is ruled out again. Of the three, Brissett and McDermott are the best options, with McDermott being the cheaper of the two. If Bitadze is active, this would knock the stock of Brissett the most and would, in turn, make Bitadze an elite value option assuming he would be a full-go.
This of course also opens up a lot of upside for both Malcolm Brogdon and Caris LeVert. Given the matchup and size of the slate, I want to make it a point to get at least one of these two in my single-entry lineup, with Brogdon likely to be the more popular option. Since Sabonis went down, Brogdon has averaged 1.43 DKP/min with a 30.4% usage rate and 31.7% assist rate, while LeVert has trailed closely behind with a 29.0% usage rate and 1.17 DKP/min.
Because of how bad the Pacers’ defense has been, Portland becomes an elite target on this slate. I have less interest in the backcourt (Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum) than I do the frontcourt, simply because those two continue to cut into each other’s ceilings when active. The presence of Norman Powell hasn’t helped that either. If pressing to play these guys, it’s smarter on FanDuel where they’re exponentially cheaper.
My main interest lies in Jusuf Nurkic. Considering that I have interest at over $8,000 on FanDuel, his $6,800 price on DraftKings looks like highway robbery. He’s played 29 minutes in three consecutive games, but it’s been his last pair of games that have instilled hope. In those two, he’s averaged 21.0 points, 18.0 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 2.5 stocks per game. Against a frontcourt with literally zero size, he’s my favorite play on the slate from a per-dollar perspective on DraftKings and an elite option at center on FanDuel.
Nets at Raptors preview
BKN -6.5, total: 232
The Nets come into this game as only 6.5-point favorites despite having both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant active. Speaking of the two stars, they’re incredibly underpriced on DraftKings. $9,500 on Irving is a few hundred short of what he should be and even in a matchup with Kyle Lowry, he’s still someone I want to get exposure to. Durant, on the other hand, is arguably $2,000 too cheap and is neck-and-neck with Nurkic as the top per-dollar play on the slate. He’s going to carry a massive amount of ownership, but he should. He’s $8,300. His 28 minutes last game serve as a nice baseline of what to expect, making him an elite play in every regard Tuesday.
Because those two siphon so much usage in the Nets’ offense, I have no interest in hoping for a Joe Harris ceiling game. If there’s any other Nets player that I have an interest in, it’s either Blake Griffin or DeAndre Jordan. No this is not 2011 and yes, they have had an impact lately. Both are a touch cheap at under $5,000 on DraftKings, making them fine salary savers in the frontcourt if needed, assuming they see between 21 and 26 minutes.
The Raptors have been a tough team to peg down lately, but this matchup is one to exploit. Both Fred VanVleet and Kyle Lowry have upside here, but VanVleet has been in far better form than Lowry, who’s shot under 40% from the field in four of his last five games. His price, however, has come down to $7,200, making him an intriguing tournament option while VanVleet is the better cash/single-entry player. If Gary Trent sits out again, this would only help the stock of VanVleet.
With Chris Boucher out, we should continue to see more usage for Pascal Siakam and more playing time for Khem Birch. Siakam is a fine option at $8,600, but with Durant looming at the same position for $300 less expensive, I can’t get on board with him as anything more than a pivot. Birch, on the other hand, should be viewed as an elite value play at center. In his two games since Boucher’s injury, he’s averaged 31.5 minutes per game en route to 11.0 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.0 blocks, and 1.5 steals. At $4,700 ($100 less than last game after posting 31.0 DK points), he’s one of the best value options on the slate.
Timberwolves at Rockets preview
MIN -1.5, total: 229.5
In what should be a battle of two porous defensive units, the Timberwolves seem to be coming into this game a bit disrespected by the oddsmakers (a hint at my bet slip on FTN Bets). Karl-Anthony Towns has a case for the top overall stud on the slate, as the Rockets rank 22nd or worse against primary ball handlers, scorers, dimers, and rebounders, per advanced DvP. This also bodes well for both Anthony Edwards and D'Angelo Russell, two ball-dominant scorers that feel a touch underpriced. The latter of the two is coming off of a 27-point, 12-assist double-double in 31 minutes off of the bench as well. All three are elite plays in all formats, especially if this game plays out as Vegas expects it to.
Christian Wood should soak up all of the usage he can handle for the Rockets with John Wall out, as he’s posted 1.30 DKP/min with the aforementioned players off of the court this season. This should also benefit Jae'Sean Tate and Armoni Brooks, both of whom should see a ton of ball-handling duties. Brooks is a rather boring value play, but he holds value nonetheless at only $4,300. Tate is far from a value play, but his $6,100 price tag still offers some upside on a per-dollar basis.
The biggest beneficiary, however, may be Kevin Porter. While it may be riskier than normal to invest in him right after an absence, but he was on the COVID-19 list due to violating protocols, not because he had COVID. At $6,500 without John Wall, he should be the primary point guard here and carries an astronomical ceiling for his price.
Mavericks at Warriors preview
DAL -0.5, total: 225.5
The late game presents us with two of the most entertaining stars in the game and we should hopefully see Kristaps Porzingis return for the Mavericks after missing Monday’s game. While there could be some thought that Luka Doncic could sit out after being questionable and ultimately playing Monday, the Mavs are in must-win mode, making me feel like there’s a very low probability of this happening.
Both Doncic and Porzingis are elite options in this matchup and Doncic even more so if Porzingis ends up sitting out. He posted a 42/11/7 stat line against the Warriors in their last meeting and while we haven’t seen that ceiling recently, it’s still there.
The Warriors are in an exploitable spot, but not nearly at the level that the Mavs are, as Dallas’ defense has been a much-improved unit over the second half of the season. Still, Stephen Curry is hard to pass on given the fact that he’s topped 55 DraftKings points in three of his last five games and four of his last seven. He’s still a strong play on FanDuel as well, but the scoring system that favors three-pointers on DraftKings caters more to his ceiling.
Draymond Green and Kelly Oubre are the other Warriors pieces that I have interest in. Green has been a machine over his last two games, averaging only 5.0 points, but adding 16.0 assists and 13.0 rebounds in 35 minutes per game. That type of peripheral production will make anyone at $7,400 feel drastically underpriced. While Green has assumed the primary distributor role, Oubre has stepped up in the scoring department and has averaged 22.0 points per game over his last three games.
Andrew Wiggins is also viable for only $6,900 and will likely be the forgotten piece of this bunch for the Warriors, but he’s quietly topped 35 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and won’t break your bank if you want Warriors exposure with upside.
