Week 3 NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets | NFL Picks Against the Spread | NFL Props | Survivor
Chris Meaney
We have an all-day slate of hoops in the NBA Sunday, with games in both the afternoon and evening. Per usual here, our attention shifts to the main DFS slate, which starts at 7 p.m. ET. features five contests. Let’s break them all down, shall we?
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Blazers @ Hornets preview
Blazers -5.5, total: 221.5
Portland will once again be without Damian Lillard, who is dealing with a hamstring injury that kept him out of Friday night’s game. In that contest, CJ McCollum scored 29 points and nearly 45 fantasy points and should once again be viewed as a fantastic play. With Lillard off the floor this season, McCollum is sporting a healthy 31.6% usage rate to go along with an 18% assist rate and nearly 1.20 fantasy points per minute. In Portland’s game Friday with Lillard sidelined, McCollum touched the ball 82 times and possessed the ball for 7.3 minutes, up from his season averages of 64.4 and 5.1 minutes, respectively. Don’t be shocked if McCollum gets hot from three in this game, facing a Hornets team that gives it up from deep. In fact, 40.1% of the points allowed by Charlotte this season have come from beyond the arc, the second-highest rate in the NBA. You also have to give Anfernee Simons a long look at $3,600 on DraftKings. He logged 30 minutes Friday, scoring 30 fantasy points. His usage rate jumps up to 22% with Lillard off the floor, while averaging just a touch under a fantasy point per minute in the split. Meanwhile, this is a good spot for Enes Kanter and Jusuf Nurkic but if both are active, they will eat away at each other’s minutes. Nurkic could eclipse value at his price tag here, even if he plays just 24 minutes, as the Hornets are allowing the second-most rebounds per game (16.81) to opposing centers on the year. Finally, with Lillard out, Norman Powell is a very safe option at his price tag in a solid matchup.
For the Hornets, injuries remain an issue. Already without LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward and Malik Monk, P.J. Washington and Devonte' Graham are questionable to play in this game. Washington has missed the last three games with an ankle issue which has led to a lot more playing time from Jalen McDaniels and Cody Martin as of late. We also saw Graham inactive Friday, which led to more minutes from Brad Wanamaker and the Martin brothers. Terry Rozier is going to continue to play huge minutes and attempt 18-25 shots, especially if Graham is out. He’s scored over 50 fantasy points in each of his last two games and his peripherals will be higher with Ball, Hayward and Graham off the court. This is a strong matchup, as Portland ranks 29th against primary ball handlers and 28th against scorers, per our advanced DVP tool. Finally, Miles Bridges is coming off a career-high 33 points, but I’d only be willing to pay $7,200 for him if Washington and/or Graham remain sidelined.
Thunder @ Raptors preview
Raptors -11.5, total: 220
Monitoring the Raptors news has been paramount over the last week so make sure you are paying attention. As it stands now, Fred VanVleet (hip) and Gary Trent (ankle) are both questionable. The Raptors don’t play Monday either, which means it is unlikely Kyle Lowry rests. Assuming he is active, Lowry is a fine play at $7,700 on DK, especially if VanVleet sits. With FVV off the court this season, Lowry is sporting a 25% usage rate and healthy 25% assist rate, while averaging 1.14 fantasy points per minute in the split. This is good spot, facing a Thunder defense that is surrendering the third-most points per game to opposing ball handlers out of the pick and roll this season (21.4). I definitely have GPP interest in Chris Boucher, too, who has now logged at least 30 minutes in three of his last four games and faces a Thunder team that ranks 24th against rebounders, 24th against stretch centers and 23rd against skilled centers on the year. I also feel a lot better about OG Anunoby at a sub-$7,000 price tag on DraftKings.
The Thunder, per usual, aren’t too exciting. Darius Bazley has been back in the lineup for four games, scoring 30-plus fantasy points in three of those contests. He’s a good, not great, option at $6,000, while Luguentz Dort continues to take a ton of shots for Oklahoma City right now. Dort is also averaging 5.4 spot-up points per game on the season, good for the 13th-most in all of basketball, while the Raptors are coughing up 33.9 points per game to spot-up shooters this season, the third-most in the NBA.
Rockets @ Magic preview
Rockets -0.5, total: 219
The Magic and Rockets rank 25th and 30th in defensive rating over the last 15 games, making it very possible we see a fair number of points scored in this game. Of course, we did see John Wall already get ruled out for rest purposes, which will open up more minutes for Avery Bradley and Armoni Brooks, while Kevin Porter and Christian Wood should continue to soak up a ton of the usage. Porter is sporting a solid 27% usage rate with Wall off the floor this season, while the assist rate jumps up to 24% in the split. At $6,600 with Wall out, Porter is a very strong option here, while Wood makes sense, too.
For the Magic, Wendell Carter is still fine at his $6,400 price tag. Since joining the Magic, Carter is sporting a strong 21.4% usage rate and 29% rebounding rate, while averaging 1.13 fantasy points per minute. And over his last 10 games, he is averaging a healthy 16.7 rebounding chances per game, good for the 11th-most in the league during that span. The Rockets rank 22nd against rebounders and are a bottom-five post defense this season, making this a strong matchup. Meanwhile, I am still intrigued by Cole Anthony, who is averaging 6.21 seconds per touch over the last five games, the second-most in the NBA during that span.
Kings @ Mavericks preview
Mavericks -8.5, total: 228.5
It’s tough not to consider Luka Doncic as the top play of the slate. He is coming off an incredible 19-assist game and is still just below $11,000 on DK. Doncic faces a Kings defense that plays at one of the faster paces in basketball, while ranking as a bottom-tier defense. Sacramento is allowing the second-most points per game off isolation this season (8.3), while Doncic is averaging 5.2 isolation points per game on the year, good for the second-most in the NBA. He’s also shooting 48% off the play type, while averaging 1.08 points per isolation possession. Finally, the Kings rank dead last against dimers, primary ball-handlers, scorers and crafty finishers this season, which are all Doncic’s player archetypes, according to the advanced DVP tool. Sacramento can also be had in the post, surrendering the fourth-most points per game off the play type (6.3), as well as the seventh-highest field goal percentage (51.6%). That bodes well for Kristaps Porzingis, who is averaging the eighth-most post-up points per game this season (4.1).
The Kings have been without Richaun Holmes over the last two games. In that span, Hassan Whiteside has scored 36.2 and 29 fantasy points in 23 and 24 minutes. His price has come up to $5,500 on DraftKings, which is pretty steep, despite the fact that he is averaging 1.3 fantasy points per minute with both Holmes and Marvin Bagley off the floor this season. Meanwhile, $9,800 seems like a lot for De'Aaron Fox but he’s dominating the usage for the Kings right now, especially with Bagley and Holmes sidelined. Tyrese Haliburton’s minutes have been down as of late, which makes him less exciting as a play here. If you are looking for value, Moe Harkless logged 27 minutes last game and is just $3,700 on DK.
Timberwolves @ Clippers preview
Clippers -8.5, total: 234.5
Kawhi Leonard has missed each of the last four games with foot soreness and is questionable to play Sunday. Paul George is sporting a massive 39.9% usage rate with Leonard out over the last four games, the second-highest rate in basketball. He’s scored at least 50 fantasy points in each of his last five games and would remain a very good play at $9,300 if Leonard remains out, especially against a Minnesota team that is coughing up the most points per possession (1.15) to opposing shooters off screens. Meanwhile, George is averaging 2.6 points per game off screens this year, good for the 10th-most in the league. Reggie Jackson has also been playing huge minutes and has seen an uptick in usage with both Leonard and Patrick Beverley sidelined, while Rajon Rondo is coming off his most minutes in a game since joining the Clippers (26). Jackson, Marcus Morris and Ivica Zubac are all viable mid-range options here if Leonard sits out again.
For Minnesota, Karl-Anthony Towns remains a very strong option here at $10,600. He is coming off his worst game in 10 contests, yet still scored just over 40 fantasy points, which just shows how dominant he’s been as of late. And keep in mind that was in just 26 minutes, as Towns dealt with some foul trouble in his last game. Meanwhile, if we knew D'Angelo Russell was going to get to 27-30 minutes here, I’d love him at $6,100 on DK. Since making his return, Russell is sporting a strong 30.8% usage rate.
