WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Joe MixonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Bengals vs. Rams
Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 65.5 (-115) after it opened @ 61.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- The model projects Joe Mixon to earn 16.1 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
- Joe Mixon has grinded out 61.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in football among RBs (86th percentile).
- Joe Mixon has been among the best running backs in the NFL at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a terrific 3.31 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 75th percentile.
- The Los Angeles Rams linebackers project as the worst collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to be the least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 37.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Rushing Yards
67
Rushing Yards
