MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Isiah PachecoRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Chiefs vs. Bears
Right now, Isiah Pacheco’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Chiefs are a massive 12.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs offense as the 8th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Isiah Pacheco to accrue 12.3 carries in this contest, on average, ranking in the 75th percentile among running backs.
- Isiah Pacheco’s rushing effectiveness (4.91 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (78th percentile among RBs).
- Opposing squads have run for the 2nd-most yards in football (154 per game) versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 10th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 39.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears linebackers grade out as the 4th-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season with their run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Rushing Yards
54
Rushing Yards
