Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Nick ChubbRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Browns vs. Saints
Right now, Nick Chubb’s rushing yards prop is set at 80.5 yards (-137/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 80.5 (-137) after it opened @ 72.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Browns are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 5th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 53.6% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 2nd-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.10 seconds per snap.
- Nick Chubb has generated 88.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in the NFL among RBs (98th percentile).
- Opposing teams have run for the 7th-most yards in the NFL (136 per game) versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year.
Cons
- The New Orleans Saints defensive ends project as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in regard to defending the run.
- The Cleveland Browns have faced a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
86
Rushing Yards
86
Rushing Yards
