MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Devin SingletaryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Bears vs. Bills
Right now, Devin Singletary’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-118).
The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 46.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Bills are a big 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- The weatherman calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 6th-most yards in football (144 per game) versus the Chicago Bears defense this year.
- The Chicago Bears defensive tackles grade out as the 2nd-worst unit in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
- The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the least run-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 29.3% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the 3rd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Devin Singletary to be much less involved in his offense’s run game this week (39.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (52.8% in games he has played).
- The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the league this year in run blocking.
Projection
THE BLITZ
47
Rushing Yards
47
Rushing Yards
