NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Saquon BarkleyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Jaguars vs. Giants
Right now, Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards prop is set at 78.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 78.5 (-110) after it opened @ 74.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 6th-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 44.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 10th-fastest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.91 seconds per snap.
- The forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to accrue 19.7 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
- Saquon Barkley has run for substantially more yards per game (97.0) this season than he did last season (41.0).
Cons
- The Giants are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating a passing game script.
- Opposing offenses have rushed for the 3rd-least yards in the league (just 89 per game) vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers rank as the 3rd-best group of LBs in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The New York Giants have used motion in their offense on 26.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
85
Rushing Yards
85
Rushing Yards
