NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Week 8 of the college football season is here.
Below, Monotone will give out his favorite CFB play of the week. This time, it’s coming from the Pac-12, which has surprisingly been one of the most competitive conferences in college football this year.
UCLA +6.5 vs. Oregon
-110, FOX Bet
Before we get any further into this article, let’s shoutout the Pac-12 for all these quality matchups. Neither Oregon nor UCLA were projected to be top 10 teams at this point in the season but are now playing with postseason hopes. Oregon is known for being one of the most dominant home teams in the nation, with an insane 22 straight home wins. Oregon also boasts the matchup advantage over the last decade against UCLA, but this is also clearly the best Bruins team to match into Eugene in recent history.
We are about to witnesses two of the best offenses in the nation square off, hence the 71.5 total. UCLA and Oregon are both in the top two of the Pac-12 in scoring offense, total offense, passing offense and rushing offense. Additionally these two offenses are working behind two of the bets offensive lines in football, both ranking in the top percentile of sack rate. This could end up as one of those games where the last team that has the ball wins the game.
The quarterback stats for both squads have been very good. Box Nix is currently second in the Pac-12 and 10th in the nation in completion percentage, sitting at 70.4%. Want to guess who’s ahead of him? It’s UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who currently has a 74.9% completion percentage. Here’s the thing: I don’t like Nix. I understand the stats look great this season, but when looking at his only real test this season, they lost 49-3 against Georgia. I get there the best team in the national, but it further backs up the idea that when Bo Nix collapses when the moment is biggest. You can run from the SEC all you want, but he’s found himself in a big matchup and he’s not the better quarterback.
UCLA has been absolutely on fire, with this Chip Kelly offense grinding on all cylinders. They are currently on a nine-game win streak, tied with Georgia for the second-longest streak in the nation. They have the scariest rushing attack in the nation, with Zach Charbonnet averaging over 100 yards and 7-plus yards per carry on the season. When the moment got biggest what did he do? He recorded 198 rushing yards against an elite Utah defense. What did he do the week before that against a ranked Washington team? Posted 124 rush yards. If you overcommit to slowing him down, then DTR will make you regret it, either on the ground or though the air.
I think that this is going to be a great game, and I even considered the over. UCLA has a surprisingly good secondary but will struggle to contain Oregon on the ground. If they can slow down that Oregon rush defense and force some turnovers from Bo “Pick Six” Nix, they will put themselves into a position to win this one. I do think the crowd will play a part in this game, similar to what we saw with Tennessee and Utah last week. This is giving me USC vibes, we get the win but not the cover.
