Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Aaron RodgersPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Commanders vs. Packers
Right now, Aaron Rodgers’s passing yards prop is set at 233.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 233.5 (-110) after it opened @ 234.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 10th-most pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.3% pass rate.
- The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 61.5 plays per game.
- Aaron Rodgers has been among the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL this year with a stellar 68.1% Completion%, ranking in the 85th percentile.
- The Washington Commanders pass defense has shown poor efficiency this year, yielding 8.82 yards-per-target: the 5th-most in football.
- The Green Bay Packers have utilized some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-most in the league), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.
Cons
- The Packers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
- Aaron Rodgers’s throwing effectiveness has diminished this season, totaling just 7.07 yards-per-target compared to a 8.15 mark last season.
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 8th-lowest rate in football versus the Washington Commanders defense this year (66.5%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
252
Passing Yards
252
Passing Yards
