Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyreek Hill from EV Insight

Tyreek HillReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-115/-115).

Pros

The Dolphins rank as the 10th-most pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 66.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to earn 9.8 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among wide receivers.
Tyreek Hill has been much more involved in his offense’s pass game this season (32.3% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (26.6%).
Tyreek Hill has accumulated significantly more air yards this year (118.0 per game) than he did last year (104.0 per game).
Tyreek Hill has notched substantially more receiving yards per game (100.0) this season than he did last season (66.0).

Cons

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense as the 2nd-worst paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 30.77 seconds per play.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game versus the New York Jets defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
85
Receiving Yards