Week 5 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Josh Jacobs from EV Insight

Josh JacobsRushing Yards

Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (+105/-145).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 61.5 (-145) after it opened @ 61.5 (-115).

Pros

The Las Vegas Raiders have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 63.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to accumulate 16.1 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year at run-game blocking.
Josh Jacobs has run for a lot more yards per game (91.0) this season than he did last season (56.0).
Josh Jacobs’s running effectiveness has gotten better this season, averaging 5.20 yards-per-carry compared to a measly 4.12 figure last season.

Cons

The Raiders are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 34.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to be a much smaller piece of his offense’s running game this week (73.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (83.8% in games he has played).

Projection

THE BLITZ
73
Rushing Yards