NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
Josh JacobsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Chiefs vs. Raiders
Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (+105/-145).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 61.5 (-145) after it opened @ 61.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Las Vegas Raiders have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 63.5 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to accumulate 16.1 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
- The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year at run-game blocking.
- Josh Jacobs has run for a lot more yards per game (91.0) this season than he did last season (56.0).
- Josh Jacobs’s running effectiveness has gotten better this season, averaging 5.20 yards-per-carry compared to a measly 4.12 figure last season.
Cons
- The Raiders are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 34.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to be a much smaller piece of his offense’s running game this week (73.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (83.8% in games he has played).
Projection
THE BLITZ
73
Rushing Yards
73
Rushing Yards
