Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
DK MetcalfReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Saints vs. Seahawks
Right now, DK Metcalf’s receiving yards prop is set at 62.5 yards (-115/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 62.5 (-115) after it opened @ 61.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Seahawks are a 5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 63.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-least plays run on the slate this week at 132.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to notch 10.0 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- The Seattle Seahawks have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.2 plays per game.
- The New Orleans Saints safeties project as the 4th-best group of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Seattle Seahawks have elected to go for it on 4th down a mere 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
88
Receiving Yards
88
Receiving Yards
