Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brandin CooksReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Jaguars vs. Texans
Right now, Brandin Cooks’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-123/-111).
The public has bet the OVER up to 67.5 (-123) after it opened @ 62.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.2% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The Texans are a heavy 7-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 64.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.40 seconds per snap.
- THE BLITZ projects Brandin Cooks to notch 9.6 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Brandin Cooks has notched quite a few less air yards this year (82.0 per game) than he did last year (93.0 per game).
- Brandin Cooks’s 60.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 71.8.
- Brandin Cooks has totaled substantially fewer receiving yards per game (54.0) this season than he did last season (64.0).
- Brandin Cooks’s receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 68.2% to 59.0%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
77
Receiving Yards
77
Receiving Yards
