Week 5 Player Props: Passing Yards for Davis Mills from EV Insight

Davis MillsPassing Yards

Right now, Davis Mills’s passing yards prop is set at 232.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 232.5 (-110) after it opened @ 240.5 (-115).

Pros

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.2% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a heavy 7-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 64.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.40 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Davis Mills to attempt 38.5 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 5th-most of all QBs.

Cons

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Davis Mills has been among the least effective QBs in football this year, averaging a mere 6.24 yards-per-target while checking in at the lowly 22nd percentile.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 8th-lowest level in the league vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year (66.2%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers rank as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Houston Texans O-line has given their QB a measly 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
263
Passing Yards