Week 5 Player Props: Rushing Yards for James Robinson from EV Insight

James RobinsonRushing Yards

Right now, James Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet the OVER up to 65.5 (+100) after it opened @ 62.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jaguars are a massive 7-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to run the 6th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects James Robinson to notch 14.9 carries in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among running backs.
James Robinson has earned 56.8% of his team’s carries this year, ranking in the 88th percentile among running backs.

Cons

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

Projection

THE BLITZ
66
Rushing Yards