Week 5 Player Props: Passing Yards for Justin Herbert from EV Insight

Justin HerbertPassing Yards

Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 270.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 270.5 (-125) after it opened @ 277.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to attempt 38.0 passes in this game, on average: the 7th-most of all quarterbacks.
Justin Herbert has been among the top quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 299.0 yards per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.
The Los Angeles Chargers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Chargers have used play action on 28.5% of their passing plays since the start of last season (9th-most in the NFL), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 11th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 6th-least in football.
The Cleveland Browns linebackers grade out as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Cleveland Browns defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.42 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
249
Passing Yards