Week 5 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Austin Ekeler from EV Insight

Austin EkelerRushing Yards

Right now, Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-142/+104).

The public has bet the OVER up to 51.5 (-142) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).

Pros

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Austin Ekeler has garnered 54.9% of his team’s carries this year, ranking in the 88th percentile among running backs.
The Cleveland Browns defensive tackles grade out as the worst unit in football this year when it comes to run defense.
The Los Angeles Chargers have gone for it on 4th down 27.6% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 9th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 37.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 11th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in football this year at opening holes for rushers.
Austin Ekeler has run for significantly fewer yards per game (36.0) this year than he did last year (61.0).
Austin Ekeler’s running effectiveness has worsened this year, notching just 3.22 yards-per-carry vs a 4.74 figure last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
52
Rushing Yards