Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Austin EkelerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Browns vs. Chargers
Right now, Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-142/+104).
The public has bet the OVER up to 51.5 (-142) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).
Pros
- The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Austin Ekeler has garnered 54.9% of his team’s carries this year, ranking in the 88th percentile among running backs.
- The Cleveland Browns defensive tackles grade out as the worst unit in football this year when it comes to run defense.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have gone for it on 4th down 27.6% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 9th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 37.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 11th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Chargers O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in football this year at opening holes for rushers.
- Austin Ekeler has run for significantly fewer yards per game (36.0) this year than he did last year (61.0).
- Austin Ekeler’s running effectiveness has worsened this year, notching just 3.22 yards-per-carry vs a 4.74 figure last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Rushing Yards
52
Rushing Yards
