Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Lockett from EV Insight

Tyler LockettReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Lockett’s receiving yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-106/-129).

The public has bet the OVER up to 68.5 (-106) after it opened @ 62.5 (-115).

Pros

The Seahawks are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Lockett to accrue 9.6 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.

Cons

The Seattle Seahawks have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.2 plays per game.
Tyler Lockett’s ability to grind out extra yardage has declined this year, averaging a mere 2.44 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 3.74 figure last year.
The New Orleans Saints safeties project as the 4th-best group of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
86
Receiving Yards