Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mark Andrews from EV Insight

Mark AndrewsReceiving Yards

Right now, Mark Andrews’s receiving yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-131/-104).

The public has bet the OVER up to 70.5 (-131) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 9th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.5% pass rate.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 40.8 pass attempts per game versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Mark Andrews to total 9.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among TEs.
Mark Andrews has been a more integral piece of his offense’s air attack this year (33.6% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (26.6%).

Cons

The Ravens are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 122.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 52.2 plays per game.
Mark Andrews has accrued substantially fewer receiving yards per game (74.0) this year than he did last year (82.0).
Mark Andrews’s sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 73.1% to 67.4%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
90
Receiving Yards