Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Lamar JacksonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Ravens vs. Bengals
Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 223.5 yards (-109/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 223.5 (-125) after it opened @ 226.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 9th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.5% pass rate.
- The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Opposing teams have averaged 40.8 pass attempts per game versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
- Lamar Jackson’s passing accuracy has improved this season, with his Completion% jumping from 64.0% to 67.6%.
- Lamar Jackson has been among the most efficient passers in the league this year, averaging a stellar 7.94 yards-per-target while ranking in the 78th percentile.
Cons
- The Ravens are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 122.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Baltimore Ravens have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 52.2 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to attempt 33.0 passes in this contest, on average: the least of all QBs.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 5th-lowest clip in football against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year (65.2%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
258
Passing Yards
258
Passing Yards
