Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Najee HarrisRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Bills vs. Steelers
Right now, Najee Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 53.5 (-110) after it opened @ 51.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 9th-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 43.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to accumulate 17.4 carries in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.
Cons
- The Steelers are a giant 14-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, averaging just 55.0 plays per game.
- Najee Harris has been a much smaller piece of his offense’s run game this year (64.8% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (78.8%).
- Najee Harris has run for a lot fewer yards per game (47.0) this year than he did last year (63.0).
- Najee Harris’s running efficiency (3.33 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (12th percentile among RBs).
Projection
THE BLITZ
74
Rushing Yards
74
Rushing Yards
