Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Diontae Johnson from EV Insight

Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 51.5 (-120) after it opened @ 54.5 (-120).

Pros

The Steelers are a giant 14-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Diontae Johnson has run a route on 97.4% of his offense’s passing plays this year, putting him in the 96th percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects Diontae Johnson to accumulate 9.0 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among wide receivers.
Diontae Johnson has notched significantly more air yards this season (101.0 per game) than he did last season (92.0 per game).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 9th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, averaging just 55.0 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 2nd-least in the NFL.
Diontae Johnson has accrued quite a few less receiving yards per game (54.0) this year than he did last year (71.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards