Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Pat Freiermuth from EV Insight

Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards

Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-121/-113).

The public has bet the OVER up to 38.5 (-121) after it opened @ 36.5 (-115).

Pros

The Steelers are a giant 14-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to notch 6.1 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among TEs.
Pat Freiermuth has been a more integral piece of his team’s passing offense this year (23.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (12.9%).
Pat Freiermuth has compiled far more air yards this year (58.0 per game) than he did last year (28.0 per game).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 9th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, averaging just 55.0 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 2nd-least in the NFL.
Pat Freiermuth’s possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 80.0% to 62.5%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
36
Receiving Yards