Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
D.J. MooreReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Panthers vs. 49ers
Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Panthers are a 6-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 9th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to garner 8.6 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.2 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 10th-least in the league.
- D.J. Moore has accrued quite a few less air yards this year (55.0 per game) than he did last year (100.0 per game).
- D.J. Moore’s 57.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 71.9.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards
67
Receiving Yards
