NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Allen LazardReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Packers vs. Giants
Right now, Allen Lazard’s receiving yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 46.5 (-110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-125).
Pros
- Allen Lazard’s possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Completion% increasing from 69.9% to 73.6%.
- Allen Lazard’s pass-game efficiency has gotten a boost this year, averaging 11.61 yards-per-target compared to a measly 9.55 rate last year.
- Allen Lazard’s skills in picking up extra yardage have gotten a boost this season, totaling 7.83 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a mere 3.52 rate last season.
- The New York Giants linebackers profile as the 6th-worst LB corps in football this year in covering receivers.
- The New York Giants pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.61 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Packers are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 56.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 4th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game versus the New York Giants defense this year: 5th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards
55
Receiving Yards
