MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
Every week of the NFL season, we at FTN will be writing up our favorite same-game parlays for the Thursday and Monday night football games, as well as for the Sunday slate. We will also be posting them in the NFL Bet Tracker, so if you want to bet them with us, head over to where you can find all of the FTNBets’ team’s picks.
NFL Same Game Parlay of the Day: Week 5 Thursday Slate
The Thursday Night Football same game parlay this week is an ugly one. Week 5 of the NFL season kicks off with the Indianapolis Colts traveling west to take on the Denver Broncos. This game has lost some of its luster with both teams stumbling a bit out of the gate.
The Colts have a concerning injury situation with star running back Jonathan Taylor. He is questionable to play and missed practice Tuesday. The Broncos also have an issue at running back with Javonte Williams out for the year. Melvin Gordon should slide into the lead role. Williams was averaging 4.5 yards per carry, compared to just 3.75 for Gordon so far in 2022. Gordon may not be as efficient as Williams was, but he should produce similar yardage numbers due to a bump in volume. As mentioned, this game projects to be slow-paced and low-scoring, so you can probably guess where the same game parlay will be focused.
DraftKings Same Game Parlay of the Day
Total Under 42.5
Courtland Sutton 4+ Receptions
Russell Wilson Over 194.5 Passing Yards
+300, DraftKings Sportsbook
The Colts and Broncos are both teams with above-average defenses and below-average offenses to start the year. The Broncos have scored just 66 points in four games. That is bad, but it actually tops the Colts, who have managed just 57 in their first four. The Colts defense has allowed just over 21 points per game, while the Broncos are giving up just 17 per. Those numbers alone scream bet the under. To top it off, both teams are playing with their No. 1 running back either out or playing at well less than 100%. Taking the best weapon off a struggling offense in a game where they take on a stingy defense is never a recipe for tons of points to be scored.
The Denver run game takes a massive hit with Javonte Williams going down and Melvin Gordon taking over. This is also a very bad matchup, as the Colts run defense has been their strength. That means we should expect the Broncos to go to the air a little more in this one. The only game Russ did not top 200 passing yards was against the 49ers. He had one big game against the Seahawks in Week 1 but has struggled averaging just over 210 yards in the three games since. The reason I like this over so much here is that the path of least resistance against the Colts is through the air. Without his No. 1 RB option, that should be the way the Broncos game plan skews.
If the Broncos are going to take to the air, Courtland Sutton is the guy we want to get a piece of. Sutton has outperformed Jerry Jeudy in the early part of the season. Sutton has seen at least 7 targets in every game and has caught at least 4 balls too. He is averaging 6 catches on 9 targets through the first four weeks of 2022. Jeudy is a little bagged up with a rib injury and K.J. Hamler was basically nonexistent this season until catching a 55-yard pass on his only target, one of only two he’s had all season. Javonte Williams had 22 targets on the season. Gordon should see the bulk of those extra looks, but it should also add up to more for guys like Sutton and Jeudy, who already led the team in target share.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
A same game parlay is a bet that links multiple outcomes together that all come from the same event. Every NFL game has hundreds of different bet types. Sports books will offer bets on the spread, on the total, on who will score a touchdown, how many yards certain players will have, and many more events. A bettor has the ability to make a straight bet on each of these markets individually. If a bettor decides he wants to get a bigger payout by linking multiple outcomes together, that is what a same game parlay is for.
Why Bet Same Game Parlays
Same-game parlays offer a unique opportunity. Most parlays are -EV because you are trying to build up odds through uncorrelated events. When you put three teams in a parlay and it pays out at +595, you are getting the implied probability of 14.39%. There is not much value there — if you hit bets at a 52% clip, a three-team parlay at -110 odds has the implied probability of 14%. You are making a bad bet as the implied probability of you hitting the bet is less than the odds you are receiving.
Same-game parlays are different — you get an opportunity to add multiple events that increase your odds, and they are correlated. Same-game parlays are very similar to DFS game theory — you are telling yourself a story for how the game plays out and when you are right you win in a big way. Think Tom Brady has a huge game and throws for multiple touchdowns and over 300 yards? Well, he is going to have to take some receivers with him. Now the Buccaneers are putting pressure on the other team and they will have to respond by airing it out. Picking a receiver on the other team to run it back can give you serious odds and a big pay out. The reason to bet on the same-game parlays is because, when you are right, it pays off big. But it is very important when building them you aren’t trying to tell two different stories.
