Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Deebo SamuelReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Panthers vs. 49ers
Right now, Deebo Samuel’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-115/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 55.5 (-115) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).
Pros
- The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to notch 8.1 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among wide receivers.
- Deebo Samuel has been a big part of his team’s passing attack, earning a Target Share of 27.3% this year, which ranks him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
- Deebo Samuel has been among the top WRs in the league this year, averaging a terrific 62.0 yards per game while checking in at the 81st percentile.
Cons
- The 49ers are a 6-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Deebo Samuel has put up significantly fewer air yards this season (28.0 per game) than he did last season (64.0 per game).
- Deebo Samuel’s receiving efficiency has diminished this year, notching a mere 9.24 yards-per-target compared to a 10.42 rate last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
76
Receiving Yards
76
Receiving Yards
